一文了解券商对友邦(01299.HK)季绩後最新目标价及观点
友邦保险(01299.HK)今日(28日)股价抽高逾3%，一度最高见78.2元，券商指撇除本港业务後新业务价值强劲。友邦今早开市前公布截至今年9月底止第三季业绩，录新业务价值(NBV)按固定汇率计算按年增1%至9.8亿美元，瑞信早前料友邦新业务价值9.89亿美元，指市场预期的9.84亿美元；年化新保费按年减少8%至14.44亿美元；新业务价值利润率增加6个百分点至67%，主要由产品和地区业务组合的正面变动，以及营运假设变动所带动，并反映中国内地税务法规变动，调高佣金支出的税务扣减带来的正面影响。
【港业务承压 其他呈巩固】
友邦第三季总加权保费收入按年升8%至81.68亿美元。按实质汇率计算，第三季录得新业务价值按年持平。不计入香港业务，新业务价值增长14%。公司表示，专属代理和银行保险渠道的增长被香港零售独立财务顾问渠道新业务价值大幅下降所抵销。香港业务第三季新业务价值录双位数下降。内地全资拥有业务继续缔造非常强劲的新业务价值增长，并於第三季成为各报告市场分部中增长最迅速的业务。
野村估计友邦香港第三季新业务价值按年跌19%，其中内地客户业务按年减少约四成，差於该行预期的两成跌幅。但该行认为香港示威活动的负面影响仅属暂时性，因内地客户对香港保险产品需求并没有消失，在香港示威完结後，料友邦香港业务会反弹。该行预期香港示威活动在第四季持续，甚至有机会延至明年，决定下调对友邦今年至2021年年化新保费预测7%，同时下调目标价由75.91元降至75.72元，维持「中性」评级。
【港因素反映 料不削预测】
摩根大通表示，友邦在公司报告第三季业绩期前3周公布经营数据，扫除市场对第三季新业务价值疑虑，对有关做法表示欢迎。该行不预期市场大幅削减友邦新业务价值预测，基於香港业务挑战已大致反映，且公司将於明年在中国取得额外经营牌照，将潜在推升估值，公司目前估值亦吸引。该行目前给予「增持」评级，目标价100元。
本网最新综合9间券商对其投资评级及目标价：
券商│投资评级│目标价(港元)
摩根大通│增持│100元大和│买入│95元
高盛│买入(确信买入名单)│94元
摩根士丹利│增持│92元
瑞信│跑赢大市│91元瑞银│买入│90元花旗│买入│90元
麦格理│跑赢大市│89元
野村│中性│75.91元-75.72元券商│观点
摩根大通│公司提早公布季绩扫除市场忧虑，对此表欢迎
大和│新业务价值在挑战性环境下正面增长
高盛│中国业务强劲，香港本地业务仍然坚韧
摩根士丹利│香港以外新业务价值仍然稳健
瑞信│季绩符预期，非香港市场增长稳固
瑞银│第三季业绩受香港业务影响属预期之内
花旗│新业务价值率改善，新业务价值因香港业务仅微增
麦格理│香港跨境业务疲弱属相对短期情况
野村│季绩逊预期，受香港业务拖累
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