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野村:維持小米(1810.HK)“買入”評級 受惠5G週期的浪潮
格隆匯 10-28 14:56

野村發表的研究報告指,該行於5月底將小米集團(01810.HK)評級升至“買入”,主要因為投資者對其內地智能手機市場份額看法已較悲觀,加上物聯網(IoT)方面持續增長,而其互聯網業務中內地手機廣告銷售減少,但其股價仍下跌8%,同期恆指跌幅僅4%,意味公司內地市佔縮減為投資者最大憂慮。

該行考慮多個情景,認為小米股價範圍將在7.9港至13.2港元,最好的情況下小米在2020年可守住內地市場份額,而北水亦帶動估值重評,而最壞的情況下公司繼續流失內地市場份額,並拖累估值向下重評。野村認為受惠5G週期的浪潮,假如公司管理層能有效執行,仍有機會可守住內地的市場份額,故維持“買入”評級,但由於該行將其2019至20年銷售預測下調8%至14%,目標價由12港元降至11港元。

該行估計第三季公司智能手機出貨量將為3,200萬台,而全年出貨量將持平,受內地市場份額流失影響,公司對海外市場依賴增加,另外由於第四季屬5G轉換時期,故公司在內地市場將有較大挑戰。在IoT業務方面公司增長持續,該行預期第三季其電視出貨量將達250萬至260萬台,按季有所放緩,而第四季由於屬假日旺季,電視出貨量料將強勁反彈,維持對其全年電視出貨量1,200萬至1,300萬台的預測,而華為在IoT方面的能力仍遠遜小米。

該行指出,管理層維持公司互聯網銷售在2020年增長將達16%至19%的預測不變,而該行則估計公司第三季互聯網銷售將為11%至14%左右,主要受惠海外流動廣告、海外智能手機、小米有品及金融服務等業務。

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