福壽園 ( 1448.HK ) 公司首次覆蓋報告：讓告別更美麗，讓成長更穩健
機構：國泰君安
本報告導讀：
公司是殯葬行業龍頭，定位高端，存量項目儲備豐富，並通過外延併購優質項目實現全國發展。
摘要：我們預計福壽園公司2019-2021年營業收入分別為19.32億元、22.01億元和24.26億元，歸母淨利潤分別為5.69億元、6.46億元和7.11億元。我們給與2019年PE30X，對應價格為7.5元/8.33港元，此外我們用DCF估值法得出價格為8.93元/9.92港元。綜上，我們取兩者平均價格8.22元/9.13港元為目標價，首次覆蓋給與“增持”評級。
公司是中國民營高端殯葬龍頭。①福壽園於1994年開始在上海提供墓園服務，目前已覆蓋15個省市自治區及直轄市的30餘座城市，是全國規模最大的殯葬服務提供商。②公司主要高管從業時間超20年。
中國殯葬行業前景無限。①2017年中國殯葬服務業的市場規模約為990億人民幣，2013-2017年CAGR為17.0%。②2018年中國65歲以上人口占總人口的11.9%，預計到2030年，65歲以上人口比例達到18.2%。未來每年死亡人數超1200萬。③由於行業壁壘較高，殯葬行業以國營企業為主導，但是民營企業的分散度較高，按照2018年收入來看，公司市場佔有率不足2%，發展空間巨大。
公司定位高端市場，持續外延擴張。①福壽園的經營理念是“讓公墓變花園”、“讓告別變美麗”，致力於為顧客提高定製化、個性化服務。從2012-2018年銷售數據中可以看出，定製藝術墓、成品藝術墓這兩種高端墓型為公司創造了巨大收益。②上海項目仍有巨量資產尚未變現，全國擴張潛力巨大。公司上市初只有6座墓園，5座殯儀館，覆蓋8座城市。截止2019年中，已有21座墓園，22座殯儀館，覆蓋了30座城市。③迎合行業發展，融入科技元素，積極發展新業務。生前契約等服務逐步成為殯儀板塊的重要戰略支撐。
風險提示。殯葬行業政策風險；宏觀經濟週期下行風險；外延併購不達預期的風險等。
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