一文綜合大行對工行(01398.HK)季績後最新目標價及觀點
工商銀行(01398.HK)今早股價造好，上周五(25日)收市後公布首三季業績，純利按年升5%至2,517.12億元人民幣(下同)；每股盈利0.71元。期內營業收入按年升8.3%至5,846.84億元。利息淨收入按年增長7%至4,531.46億元。非利息收入按年增長13.2%至1,315.38億元，其中手續費及佣金淨收入按年增長9.6%至1,246.35億元。
營業費用按年增加6.1%至1,300.19億元。加權平均權益回報率則按年下跌0.85個百分點至14.3%。年化淨利息收益率為2.26%，成本收入比22.24%。單計第三季純利按年升5.8%至837.81億元；每股盈利0.24元。期內營業收入按年升6.7%至1,904.81億元。
【撥備覆蓋率升 花旗認為具防守性】
工行不良貸款餘額2,397.85億元，比上年末增加47.01億元，不良貸款率1.44%，比上年末下降0.08個百分點。撥備覆蓋率198.09%，比上年末提高22.33個百分點。核心一級資本充足率12.93%，一級資本充足率14.16%，資本充足率16.65%。
花旗認為，工行撥備前經營溢利及稅後溢利均相對地欠缺驚喜，但淨息差、貸存增長及資產質素維持健康，反映該行應對宏觀挑戰的能力良好。在宏觀經濟進一步下行下，其高不良貨款覆蓋率為未來增長提供緩衝。該行給予工行目標價為7.14港元，評級「買入」。匯豐環球研究指，工行資產負債表於資產質素及資本狀況改善下，在第三季強化。淨息差下降則符合預期，並預計淨息差壓力在今年第四季及明年持續。該行維持工行「買入」評級，目標價上調至7.3元。
【瑞銀關注收入增長動力放緩】
瑞銀指出，工行第三季稅後純利增長加快，但收入增長動力持續下滑，淨利息及費用收入增長均放緩。成本仍得以嚴密控制，使工行在撥備前經營溢利錄得7.5%增長。撥備開支按年增長15%拖累純利表現。該行認為市場對業績反應將輕微負面，續給予工行「買入」評級及6.8元目標價不變。
本網最新綜合10間券商對其投資評級及目標價，1間券商上調目標價，全數給予「買入」、「增持」、「跑贏大市」或「跑贏行業」評級：
券商│投資評級│目標價
中金│跑贏行業│8.11元
匯豐環球研究│買入│7.2元-7.3元
花旗│買入│7.14元
摩根士丹利│增持│6.9元
瑞銀│買入│6.8元
大和│跑贏大市│6.6元
美銀美林│買入│6.5元
野村│買入│6.49元
招商證券國際│買入│6.3元
里昂│買入│6.25元
------------------------券商│觀點
中金│息差如預期收窄，資產質量平穩
匯豐環球研究│資產負債表強化
花旗│淨息差、撥備前經營溢利及資產質素穩定證明具防守性
摩根士丹利│撥備前經營溢利增長穩定
瑞銀│淨息差壓力持續，資產質素維持穩定
大和│業績令人滿意，資產質素進一步改善
美銀美林│季績穩健，資本狀況強化
野村│不良貨款持續改善，但淨息差下降
招商證券國際│整體資產質素穩定
里昂│一如既往地穩健
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