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一文综合大行对工行(01398.HK)季绩後最新目标价及观点
阿思达克 10-28 11:50

工商银行(01398.HK)今早股价造好,上周五(25日)收市後公布首三季业绩,纯利按年升5%至2,517.12亿元人民币(下同);每股盈利0.71元。期内营业收入按年升8.3%至5,846.84亿元。利息净收入按年增长7%至4,531.46亿元。非利息收入按年增长13.2%至1,315.38亿元,其中手续费及佣金净收入按年增长9.6%至1,246.35亿元。

营业费用按年增加6.1%至1,300.19亿元。加权平均权益回报率则按年下跌0.85个百分点至14.3%。年化净利息收益率为2.26%,成本收入比22.24%。单计第三季纯利按年升5.8%至837.81亿元;每股盈利0.24元。期内营业收入按年升6.7%至1,904.81亿元。

【拨备覆盖率升 花旗认为具防守性】

工行不良贷款余额2,397.85亿元,比上年末增加47.01亿元,不良贷款率1.44%,比上年末下降0.08个百分点。拨备覆盖率198.09%,比上年末提高22.33个百分点。核心一级资本充足率12.93%,一级资本充足率14.16%,资本充足率16.65%。

花旗认为,工行拨备前经营溢利及税後溢利均相对地欠缺惊喜,但净息差、贷存增长及资产质素维持健康,反映该行应对宏观挑战的能力良好。在宏观经济进一步下行下,其高不良货款覆盖率为未来增长提供缓冲。该行给予工行目标价为7.14港元,评级「买入」。汇丰环球研究指,工行资产负债表於资产质素及资本状况改善下,在第三季强化。净息差下降则符合预期,并预计净息差压力在今年第四季及明年持续。该行维持工行「买入」评级,目标价上调至7.3元。

【瑞银关注收入增长动力放缓】

瑞银指出,工行第三季税後纯利增长加快,但收入增长动力持续下滑,净利息及费用收入增长均放缓。成本仍得以严密控制,使工行在拨备前经营溢利录得7.5%增长。拨备开支按年增长15%拖累纯利表现。该行认为市场对业绩反应将轻微负面,续给予工行「买入」评级及6.8元目标价不变。

本网最新综合10间券商对其投资评级及目标价,1间券商上调目标价,全数给予「买入」、「增持」、「跑赢大市」或「跑赢行业」评级:

券商│投资评级│目标价

中金│跑赢行业│8.11元

汇丰环球研究│买入│7.2元-7.3元

花旗│买入│7.14元

摩根士丹利│增持│6.9元

瑞银│买入│6.8元

大和│跑赢大市│6.6元

美银美林│买入│6.5元

野村│买入│6.49元

招商证券国际│买入│6.3元

里昂│买入│6.25元

------------------------券商│观点

中金│息差如预期收窄,资产质量平稳

汇丰环球研究│资产负债表强化

花旗│净息差、拨备前经营溢利及资产质素稳定证明具防守性

摩根士丹利│拨备前经营溢利增长稳定

瑞银│净息差压力持续,资产质素维持稳定

大和│业绩令人满意,资产质素进一步改善

美银美林│季绩稳健,资本状况强化

野村│不良货款持续改善,但净息差下降

招商证券国际│整体资产质素稳定

里昂│一如既往地稳健

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