郭家耀: 港股观望气氛浓厚 内地区域性银行经营具挑战
正荣金融业务部副总裁郭家耀称,美股上周五(25日)表现向好,中美接近达成第一阶段协议部分内容,加上企业业绩表现理想,消息提振大市气氛,三大指数逼近历史纪录高位收市。美元走势靠稳,美国十年期债息回升至1.79厘水平,油价及金价走势向好。港股预托证券大致向好,预料大市早段跟随外围高开。内地股市走势向好,中美贸易谈判取得进展,刺激沪综指收市上升0.5%。市场观望本周的四中全会消息,沪深两市成交继续保持清淡。
港股走势偏软,企业业绩未如理想,拖低大市表现。市场观望气氛浓厚,大市成交持续低迷。外围有多项重要消息陆续发布,第三季企业业绩表现参差,预料投资者入市态度维持谨慎,指数继续於26,500至27,000点水平上落。
另标普发表《中国商业银行业信用质量分布研究》报告,针对国有六大行、11家股份制银行、34家外资行、100家城市商业银行和49家农村商业银行进行分析,共占中国银行业总资产规模约93%。在信用状况方面,国有六大行以及大部分股份制银行和大部分外资银行,潜在主体信用质量较好,城商行和农商行潜在主体信用质量则分布很广。与其他国家比较,中国银行业不良贷款率相对较低且稳定。中国不同地区的经济环境差异较大,导致不同地区的城商行及农商行面临的信用环境有很大分别。在西部或东北地区经营的区域性银行在管理信用风险方面,会较在北京或上海经营的区域性银行面临更大的挑战。
包商银行事件後,区域性银行的资产增速可能进一步下降,融资成本上升。融资成本上升的原因有两方面,一方面一小部分区域性银行的经营状况在今年有所恶化,更重要的原因是投资者在包商银行事件後更加关注区域性银行的信用风险。由此可见,大型国有银行跟城商行及农商行的估值有差异是相当合理,投资者需要小心选择。
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