交銀國際升美團點評(03690.HK)目標價至109.4元 料上季業績或超預期
交銀國際發表報告表示,估計美團點評(03690.HK)第三季度收入將達到261億元人民幣(下同),按年增長37%,按季增長15%,較此前預期的253億元上調3%,較市場預期的258億元高約1.2%,預測其調整後淨利潤7,900萬元,此前預期約4.8億元虧損,但仍較市場預期的2.8億元盈利為低。
該行料美團旗下外賣業務交易規模增速或好於預期,預計單均虧損0.1元,估算第三季度美團外賣的交易金額按年增長31%,達1,047億元,較該行此前預期的1,014億元上調3%,主要受到用戶數的繼續提升以及日訂單量(2,580萬,按年增33%)所帶動。該行上調第三季外賣業務收入預測約4%(約6億元),到149億元,相當於按年增33%,按季增16%。
交銀國際表示,上調美團點評2019年收入預期約1%,上調淨利潤至800萬人民幣,對比此前預測每股虧損0.18元。仍然看好各業務的持續增長及交叉營銷能力將繼續提升用戶下單頻次及體驗,十一黃金周訂單量按年增43%,或使第四季度表現超預期。預計2020年收入增速23%,利潤39億元。按綜合方式作估值,將估值切換至2020年,目標價由84.4港元升至109.4港元,對應2020及2021年預測市銷率各4.8倍及4.1倍,及市盈率141倍及64倍,並預期整體利潤或在2021年後開始放量。
該行料美團點評2019年淨利潤為800萬元,並估計於2020年及2021年淨利潤各為39.11億及86.33億元。
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