海螺水泥(0914.HK):第三季度銷量超預期,維持“買入“評級,目標價53.00 港元
機構:國泰君安
評級:買入
目標價:53.00 港元
因銷量高於預期,2019 年第三季度業績略好於預期。單季收入同比增 22.0%至 391.13 億 元人民幣。由於低利潤的貿易業務增速更快,整體毛利率繼續受到拖累,同比下降 4.7 個 百分點至 31.5%。股東淨利同比增 10.1%,略好於我們的預期。
海螺水泥有望受益於對超載更嚴格的監管。我們預計因運輸成本上升,由低價區域向高價 區域運輸的水泥產品總量將會下降,而這將支撐華東等高價地區的水泥價格。我們預計海 螺水泥將受惠於更嚴格的超載監管,因為其主導了沿長江至華東的低成本水路運輸,從而 確立了其相對競爭者的成本優勢。
我們將 2019/ 2020/ 2021 年的每股盈利預測分別上調了 3.8%/ 4.6%/ 4.2%。我們主要基 於 2019 年第三季度高於預期的銷量,上調了自產水泥產品的銷量假設。此外,我們上調 了對其他收入以及應占聯營/合營公司利潤的假設,以反映第三季度投資收益的快速增長。
維持“買入”及 53.00 港元的目標價。我們的 DCF 模型給出的公允價值為每股 68.66 港 元。儘管反壟斷調查可能會對第四季度價格的進一步上漲施加潛在壓力,我們認為海螺水 泥的股東利潤或將在 2019 年維持雙位數增長。我們的目標價對應 7.7 倍/ 7.6 倍/ 7.5 倍的 2019-2021 年市盈率和 1.9 倍的 2019 年市淨率。

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