復星旅遊文化(1992.HK):休閒度假領軍者,加速佈局新市場,給予“買入”評級
機構:東北證券
評級:買入
報告摘要:
休閒度假村龍頭,三大板塊協同發展。公司是全球知名的休閒度假村 巨頭,專注為客户提供量身定製的休閒旅遊解決方案。公司於 2015 年收購全球最大的一價全包度假村集團 Club Med,並於 2018 年開業 三亞亞特蘭蒂斯,以度假村、旅遊目的地和基於度假場景的服務及解 決方案三大業務構建完整 FOLIDAY 生態系統。
休閒度假市場大有可為。2017 年全球旅遊業收入 5.46 萬億美元 /+4.6%,其中休閒度假旅遊佔比 59%,表現勝過其他主要經濟板塊。 在全球休閒度假旅遊住宿市場持續擴張背景下,度假村是最受歡迎的 住宿形式之一,2013-2017 年度假村市場年複合增長率達 8.5%,佔全 球休閒旅遊住宿市場的 27%。度假村市場高度分散且競爭激烈,CR5 僅 2.4%。公司在服務質量、產品多元化、地域覆蓋及價格等方面都 具有較強優勢,市佔率具有較大提升空間。
度假村為業績核心引擎,旅遊目的地發展迅猛。度假村:Club Med 為 70 年度假村老品牌,佈局全球,隨着產品升級改造&輕資產擴張推 進,盈利能力顯著增強。獨具特色的 G.O 概念為客户提供優質的差異 化服務,造就強大的市場競爭力。旅遊目的地:亞特蘭蒂斯卡位三亞 優勢區域,攜手 Kerzner 打造高端綜合性旅遊目的地。憑藉優越的地 理位臵和海南政策東風,開業首年業績亮眼,棠岸項目快速回籠資金。 隨着客流上升、配套設施的完善以及經營不斷成熟,未來業績有望保 持高速增長。麗江&太倉新項目預計 2020 分階段完工,有望進一步 開拓中國市場。基於度假場景的服務和解決方案:以泛秀和迷你營為 代表,為客户提供多樣化服務;依託 FOLIDAY 生活平台,加強線上 銷售推廣;藉助會員忠誠計劃提供會員優惠服務,增強客户粘性。
投資建議:預計公司 2019-2021 年營收為 179.74 億/191.30 億/206.19 億元,歸母淨利潤為 7.29 億/8.68 億/10.27 億,同增 136%/19%/18%; 對應 P/E 分別為 17 倍/14 倍/12 倍,給予“買入”評級。 風險提示:宏觀經濟波動風險;災害事件;項目延遲。

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