愛嬰室（603214.SH）：三季度線下門店加速開拓，毛利率提升帶動業績大幅增長
作者：葉樂
來源：中信建投中小市值
事件
公司發佈三季報：1）2019年前三季度營收17.4億元，同增14.52%；歸母淨利潤8726.6萬元，同增32.95%；扣非歸母淨利潤7326.9萬元，同增33.75%；經營性現金流2135.7萬元，同減65.9%；ROE（加權）為9.52%，同減0.21個百分點。2）3Q19單季度營收5.62億元，同增11.68%；歸母淨利潤2497.9萬元，同增49.46%；扣非歸母淨利潤2237.9萬元，同增56.62%。
簡評
3Q19營收增長略有放緩。3Q19公司收入同增11.68%，低於1Q19、2Q19分別為13.21%、18.36%的同比增速。其中，門店端3Q19營收5.0億元，佔總營收比重達88.6%，營收同增12.5%，1Q19、2Q19門店收入同比增速分別為16.5%、17.9%。分品類看，3Q19奶粉類收入2.7億元，佔營收比重的48.25%，奶粉類營收同增10.21%，低於1Q19、2Q19同比增速18.73%、18.10%的水平。
奶粉類產品毛利率改善成為盈利大幅提升的關鍵。3Q19奶粉類產品毛利率達23.62%，高於1Q19、2Q19奶粉類20.49%、23.13%的毛利率水平，3Q19毛利率同增4.3個百分點，對比來看，2Q19僅同比提高1.8個百分點。受益奶粉類產品毛利率提升，3Q19公司毛利率達30.97%，同增3.83個百分點，淨利率為4.80%，同增1.19個百分點。
三季度加速開店，華東地區開店進展最快，華南地區繼續強化佈局。截至2019年9月，公司開設線下門店266家（上海94家、浙江53家、江蘇55家、福建45家、重慶19家）。其中，1Q19、2Q19、3Q19公司淨開設門店分別為1、9、15家，4月重慶泰誠並表新增18家門店，2019Q1-3累計淨增門店43家（上海10家、浙江7家、江蘇4家、福建3家、重慶19家）。截至2019年9月，公司尚有33家門店有望於4Q19開業。
盈利預測：預計2019、2020年公司歸母淨利潤分別為1.49、1.83億元，同比增長23.8%、23.3%，對應2019、20年PE分別為30、24倍。公司是A股母嬰零售行業唯一上市公司，異地擴張持續推進，維持“增持”評級。
風險提示：異地擴張進展不及預期
附：盈利預測表
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