爱婴室（603214.SH）：三季度线下门店加速开拓，毛利率提升带动业绩大幅增长
作者：叶乐
来源：中信建投中小市值
事件
公司发布三季报：1）2019年前三季度营收17.4亿元，同增14.52%；归母净利润8726.6万元，同增32.95%；扣非归母净利润7326.9万元，同增33.75%；经营性现金流2135.7万元，同减65.9%；ROE（加权）为9.52%，同减0.21个百分点。2）3Q19单季度营收5.62亿元，同增11.68%；归母净利润2497.9万元，同增49.46%；扣非归母净利润2237.9万元，同增56.62%。
简评
3Q19营收增长略有放缓。3Q19公司收入同增11.68%，低于1Q19、2Q19分别为13.21%、18.36%的同比增速。其中，门店端3Q19营收5.0亿元，占总营收比重达88.6%，营收同增12.5%，1Q19、2Q19门店收入同比增速分别为16.5%、17.9%。分品类看，3Q19奶粉类收入2.7亿元，占营收比重的48.25%，奶粉类营收同增10.21%，低于1Q19、2Q19同比增速18.73%、18.10%的水平。
奶粉类产品毛利率改善成为盈利大幅提升的关键。3Q19奶粉类产品毛利率达23.62%，高于1Q19、2Q19奶粉类20.49%、23.13%的毛利率水平，3Q19毛利率同增4.3个百分点，对比来看，2Q19仅同比提高1.8个百分点。受益奶粉类产品毛利率提升，3Q19公司毛利率达30.97%，同增3.83个百分点，净利率为4.80%，同增1.19个百分点。
三季度加速开店，华东地区开店进展最快，华南地区继续强化布局。截至2019年9月，公司开设线下门店266家（上海94家、浙江53家、江苏55家、福建45家、重庆19家）。其中，1Q19、2Q19、3Q19公司净开设门店分别为1、9、15家，4月重庆泰诚并表新增18家门店，2019Q1-3累计净增门店43家（上海10家、浙江7家、江苏4家、福建3家、重庆19家）。截至2019年9月，公司尚有33家门店有望于4Q19开业。
盈利预测：预计2019、2020年公司归母净利润分别为1.49、1.83亿元，同比增长23.8%、23.3%，对应2019、20年PE分别为30、24倍。公司是A股母婴零售行业唯一上市公司，异地扩张持续推进，维持“增持”评级。
风险提示：异地扩张进展不及预期
附：盈利预测表
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