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摩通:聯通(0762.HK)及中移動(0941.HK)第三季服務收入及EBITDA趨勢改善
格隆匯 10-22 13:13
摩通發表的研究報告指,中國聯通(0762.HK) 及中國移動(0941.HK) 第三季服務收入跌勢放慢,而EBITDA下行勢頭亦有轉向,該行認為勢頭改善主要受惠基數效應、良性競爭以及成本管控見效,該行預期未來兩季各營運商在定價及5G推行方面將較剋制,傾向選擇中聯通>中國電信(0728.HK) >中移動。
該行指出中聯通流動服務收入及EBITDA勢頭均有改善,並預期5G資本開支將逾80億元人民幣(下同),而董事長最近亦於公眾場合指今年將建5萬個5G基站,而總資本開支預算則維持在580億元。而在中移動方面其服務收入跌勢減緩而EBITDA亦穩定,當中流動服務收入跌幅較次季有所收窄,而固網收入則按年升42%。
摩通指出在定價方面有更正面的發展,預期未來數季營運商將較剋制,認為未來轉變將令競爭環境更加良性,一來是在5G預先登記方面,營運商為長期客户提供更多補貼優惠,反映營運商在獲客方面採取不太進取的態度,並更聚焦留住現有客户。該行亦認為這個會是“ 攜號轉網 ”實施後的勢頭,相信不太可能推一些進取的宣傳以吸引用户轉網,二來中移動最近亦開始收取新家居寬頻客安裝費用等。該行指出內地營運商已在9月尾開始預登記5G服務,截至10月中有逾1000萬客户表示有興趣,預期服務最快在10月尾或11月正式推出。該行亦留意到營運商似乎對於短期內進取地推非獨立組網(NSA)5G服務有遲疑,主要因為其網絡覆蓋有限而今年出售的NSA手機將來未必適用於獨立組網(SA)的5G網絡,該行相信5G服務推動進程慢過預期, 而近期聯通及電信宣佈共建亦確認了該行的看法,相信營運商將較剋制,估計繼今年推15萬個5G基站後,明年將再有50-70萬個5G基站推出。
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