東北證券：維持華夏幸福(600340.SH)“買入”評級 目標價39.6元
東北證券發佈華夏幸福研報稱，業績穩健增長，利潤水平行業高位。2019年前三季度，公司實現歸屬於上市公司股東的淨利潤97.5億元，同比增長23.7%；營業收入643.2億元，同比增長42.5%。公司毛利率達到40.4%，歸母淨利率為15.2%，位於行業高位。
拿地力度大幅增加，銷售有望持續提速。2019年前三季度，公司土地投資額為292.6億元，同比增長225.7%；公司新獲取土地面積同比增加 71.9%。其中包括在武漢主城區獲取的 116 億的兩幅地塊，未來新業務有望持續落地。Q3 單季度銷售面積同比增長 44.3%，環比增長47.1%；銷售金額同比增長 47.2%，環比增長 24.8%。在資金問題得到解決後，公司拿地力度大幅增加，未來銷售有望持續改善。
回款率大幅提升，融資優勢充分體現。報告期內，公司實現經營現金流入約 646 億元，同比增加 19%，回款率大幅提升。公司籌資性現金流淨額達 385.5 億元，較去年同期的-111.1 億元大幅改善。公司融資渠道保持暢通。
項目層面股權合作有序推進，槓桿水平降低。截止 2019Q3，公司所有者權益為 671 億元，較年中增加 128 億，主要系少數股東權益增加120 億元，公司加大了項目層面的股權合作。所有者權益的增厚，使得公司淨負債率由中期的 226%下降 23pct 至 203%；總負債率自中期的 88.1%下降 3.2pct 至 84.9%。公司的槓桿結構持續優化。
維持公司買入評級。預計2019、20、21年EPS分別為4.95、6.09 和7.79 元，對應的 PE 分別為 5.7、4.6、3.6 倍，對應股息率分別為 5.3%、6.5%和8.3%。公司19年遠期 PE 不足6倍，處於歷史底部區間，給予公司 2019年8倍PE，維持目標價39.6元。
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