華夏幸福（600340.SH）三季報點評：轉型過渡之年，增長強勁如往
來源：小謝看地產
報告導讀
公司經歷了環北京的低迷和平安集團的入股，2019年進入了修復和磨合階段，拿地的大幅增加奠定未來增長的動力，是行業龍頭中稀有的高成長標的。而隨着公司財務結構的逐漸改善，與平安的戰略合作逐漸落地，也將大幅提振公司估值。
1、三季報業績符合預期，2019年大概率完成業績承諾
2019年前三季度公司實現營業收入643億元，同增42.48%，實現淨利潤97.46億元，同增23.71%，按照公司以往的結算進度來看，完成全年近145億元的業績承諾是大概率事件。毛利率和歸母淨利率分別為40.4%和15.2%，分別下降5.0和2.3個百分點，下降主要是由於結算結構所致，預計隨着產業發展服務業務在四季度的結算，盈利能力將回升。預收款1350億元，業績鎖定性強，確保公司公司未來的業績成長。
2、項目合作有序推進，拿地增加奠定增長
公司通過項目層面的股權合作，引入超過100億的少數股東權益，資本結構持續優化。公司資源獲取力度大幅提升，前三季度，公司獲取土地成交金額為292.6億元，較上年同期增長225.7%，新獲取土地面積比同增71.9%，超過2018年全年的土地獲取量，資源方面的大力拓展奠定公司未來業績的穩健增長。
3、2019年是公司的轉型與過渡之年，預計銷售將重新回到成長軌道
預計公司2019年銷售額基本與2018年持平，銷售增速有所下降，我們認為2019年是公司的轉型過渡之年，一方面隨着與平安戰略合作的逐步磨合和深入，公司新業務開始落地；同時，在平安的金融支持下，公司的財務結構開始明顯改善。我們繼續看好公司後續的增長，一方面公司2019年加大土地獲取力度，加之公司的商業模式使得公司在核心城市周邊擁有大量的潛在土地儲備，公司具備充足的資源；另一方面公司開始加大合作力度，有助於進一步提高項目的週轉和結算速度，推動公司重回增長軌道。
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