中國利郎(01234.HK):估值優勢凸顯,未來成長來自輕商務和電商,給予“買入”評級,目標價8.8港元
機構:華西證券
評級:買入
目標價:8.8港元
分析判斷:
男裝行業調整進行時,利郎轉型動作領先。
從行業競爭格局來看,我們分析,在經濟增速放緩、電商衝擊等難題尚未突破的背景下,福建男裝同時面臨3方面競爭壓力:(1)運動和時尚休閒的分流;(2)品牌老化,消費羣體被個性化潮牌分流;(3)來自廣東和浙江男裝品牌的競爭。而利郎在業內率先堅定推行年輕化,轉型措施主要包括:(1)提質不提價;(2)品牌年輕化:2013-2014年起,利郎以主品牌向年輕化和設計感轉型,目前公司消費者畫像向年輕化發展,80-85後已成為公司主要消費羣體,佔比達到2/3。(3)精細化管理:目前公司已實現ERP全覆蓋,渠道庫存實時更新。
輕商務:打造基本款和休閒系列,引入代銷模式。公司於2016年推出輕商務系列產品,(1)以基本款和休閒系列為主的定位有望提升品牌連帶率,目前品牌連帶率估計在2.8件左右。(2)渠道上引入代銷模式:在加盟商盈利下降、開店意願不高的背景下,公司推出代理模式有望減輕代理商庫存壓力、降低開店的後顧之憂;我們判斷,公司以約5折為代理商供貨,而終端折扣在9折以上,經銷商盈利水平好於傳統品牌;(3)開店進展:我們判斷,輕商務開店空間在1000家左右,目前開店較快:估計2019H輕商務約250家店、至Q3末約270家,預計下半年再增加100家;(4)店效情況:對比主品牌來看,我們估計主品牌平均店鋪面積140㎡、平效約2萬/㎡;輕商務平均店鋪面積180㎡、平效略高於2萬/㎡。
電商:低基數下貢獻高增長,未來佔比提升。
我們估計,公司2018年電商收入在5900萬左右、2019H在9800萬左右,預計19年全年營收可達2億、實現翻倍增長,未來3年電商收入佔比有望達到10-15%。同時,公司注重價格管控、尚未放開線上加盟,並對線上假貨積極打擊。
盈利預期與投資建議:高股息、估值處於底部
預計公司19/20EEPS為0.72/0.80元,當前股價對應19/20PE為7.9/7.1倍,處於歷史底部(5.92-8.18倍);回顧公司歷史估值來看,在2012年末、2013年初服裝庫存危機爆發疊加股市低迷階段,估值跌至4倍;在2018年熊市階段估值跌至8.4倍。公司受制於服裝板塊估值承壓,且在終端低迷背景下,2020年增速可能進一步放緩,但當前估值基本處於歷史底部區間、PEG<1、且股息率達9.31%,具備估值優勢,首次覆蓋,給予“買入”評級,目標價8.8HKD(對應20年10倍PE、即1倍PEG)。
風險提示
品牌老化被時尚休閒分流;加盟商盈利下降導致關店;系統性風險。

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