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信義光能(00968.HK):前景仍可看高一線,維持“增持”評級,目標價5.15港元
格隆匯 10-18 09:13

機構:中泰證券

評級:增持

目標價:5.15港元

光伏玻璃價格上揚

受到中國光伏市場反彈支持,公司股價自年初至今已經上升65.0%以上。由於中國光伏玻璃價格上揚,我們認為公司前景仍可看高一線。中國光伏玻璃平均價格自2018年10月的約人民幣20元/平米上升至2019年4月的約人民幣25元/平米和現在的人民幣28元/平米,略優於我們預期。因為中國市場對光伏玻璃的需求於今年下半年明顯改善,我們預期目前的光伏玻璃價格水平在今年內繼續可以獲得支持。

上調盈利預測

修改我們的財務模型後,我們分別上調我們的2019-2021年股東淨利潤預測1.5%、1.6%、1.7%(見圖表1)至港幣23.4億、28.8億、35.5億,同比增長25.7%、22.9%、23.2%。

提升目標價,維持“增持”評級

我們相應地將由貼現現金流分析(DCF)推算的目標價由4.95港元提升4.0%至5.15港元(見圖表2和3),這對應14.4倍2020年市盈率和12.9%上升空間。維持“增持”評級。風險提示:(一)項目延誤;(二)併網電價大幅下跌;(三)光伏玻璃價格波動;(四)燃成本急速上升。

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