順鑫農業(000860.SZ)深度報告牛二成長的內在邏輯
作者:訾猛,馬錚
來源:猛哥看商業
投資建議
導讀:牛欄山短期區域深耕仍有翻倍空間,在穩定基地市場、大單品的盈利支持下,提前佈局更高價位帶;長期看,毛利、淨利率均有望提升,牛二的品牌優勢將持續積累。
投資建議:牛欄山是國內“民酒”龍頭,市場對牛欄山的品牌、渠道、產品、規模等優勢有一定認知,但是對短期業績增長空間和長期卡位更高價格帶能力仍存疑慮。我們認為,“牛二”只是基本完成全國化佈局,多數區域遠未達到飽和水平,短期仍有80億增長空間,並且,牛欄山成就百億名酒的內在邏輯是“品牌運作+產品定位+輕資產運營”模式的勝利,該模式的迭代演繹將繼續支撐公司長期增長,我們預計2019-21EPS1.66、2.05、2.53元,目標價57元,對應2020年27X PE,首次給予增持評級。
市場戰略由全國化擴張向區域深耕轉型,短期業績增長有保障。目前省級過億市場超過22個,未來培育5-10個5-10億市場有保障。我們用常住人口和市場滲透率兩個維度逐個估算省級市場的潛在空間,在不考慮產品結構升級的情況下,短期牛欄山即有80億以上的增長空間。在規模優勢下,招商下沉、渠道專業分工等扁平化、精細化運作將更加快速,明星單品“白牛二”將繼續搶奪地產酒的市場份額。
“品牌運作+產品定位+輕資產運營”模式的迭代演繹保障公司長期增長能力。二鍋頭品類代表深入人心,白牛二對消費口感的把握準確,固液法工藝在保障產品質量的基礎上對市場反應能力快速。下一步,在穩定基地市場、穩定單品的盈利支持下,積極研發、提前佈局更高價位帶產品,毛利、淨利率均有提升空間,同時,牛二的品牌優勢將持續積累。
催化劑:多數區域增長目標提前完成
風險提示:經營戰略出現重大失誤;更高價位帶被競品提前收割


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