新天綠色能源(00956.HK)：三季度來風稍低，燃氣銷量持續增長，維持“買入”評級
機構：廣發證券
評級：買入
核心觀點：
2019年第三季度來風稍低
公司披露了2019年第三季度經營數據。2019年第三季度，公司實現風電發電量1,373GWh，同比增長14.00%。2019年前三季度累計風電發電量6,153GWh，同比增長14.35%。2019年第三季度主要是9月份來風情況較差，其中，山西和山東發電量分別同比下降20%/27%。但從歷史來風情況來看，2019年全年風電發電展望相對穩定，我們預計全年風電發電量同比增長14.3%。
2019年第三季度銷氣量增速恢復，全年燃氣銷氣量預計穩定增長2019年第三季度，公司實現總燃氣銷氣量4.94億立方米，同比增長18.77%，其中批發、零售、CNG/LNG業務銷氣量分別2.25/2.49/0.20億立方米，分別同比增長9.8%/29.6%/5.5%。從月度數據來看，公司3、4月份銷氣量出現負增長，5、6月份逐漸恢復增長但增速較慢，而7、8、9月份增速恢復，總銷氣量分別分為1.66/1.61/1.66億立方米，同比增長27.6%/17.5%/18.8%。
截止2019年第三季度公司實現累計燃氣總銷氣量21.4億立方米，同比增長25.25%，其中批發、零售、CNG/LNG業務銷氣量分別13.1/7.7/0.7億立方米，分別同比增長27%/23%/19%，符合預期。第四季度是傳統採暖季，燃氣市場需求量較大，我們預計2019年第四季度銷氣量為10.59億立方米，全年銷氣量為32.04億萬立方米左右，同比增長約21.7%。
盈利預測與投資評級
2019年10月14日，新天綠色能源（00956.HK）最新收盤價2.2港元，我們預測公司2019-2021年EPS為人民幣0.394/0.442/0.490元。我們預計未來公司發電量和銷氣量將保持穩定增長，公司回A計劃正在順利推行中，基於2019年7倍市盈率給予合理價值3.05港元/每股，維持“買入”評級。
風險提示
燃氣供應緊張，風電裝機新增不及預期，來風情況低於預期風險。
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