安踏體育(02020.HK)：Q3流水高增長，國際化進展順利，維持“買入”評級，目標價82港幣
機構：國盛證券
評級：買入
目標價：82港幣
安踏品牌Q3流水實現中雙位數增長，在在H1基礎上提速。根據公司公告2019Q3公司安踏主品牌終端流水實現中雙位數增長，在2019H1低雙位數的基礎上提速。我們判斷：1）安踏大貨Q1線下流水實現低雙位數增長，考慮門店數量基本維持穩定，流水增速主要由店效增長貢獻；2）安踏兒童線下流水維持25%的增速增長；3）安踏電商流水增速為30%-35%，相較上半年大幅度提升，且電商當前折扣水平有所改善，盈利水平提升。安踏品牌終端折扣水平保持在72折左右，庫銷比保持在4-5之間，整體終端表現比較健康。
FILA品牌持續超預期增長。FILA品牌延續高增長趨勢，Q3流水增速超過50%，主要來自新店擴張及原有店鋪店效提升，且庫銷比維持健康水平，同時終端折扣保持在8折左右。我們測算分渠道看：1）線下方面，FILAClassic線下流水同增40%+，平均店效超過80萬；子品牌FILAFusion線下流水是同期2倍，FILAKIDS線下流水同增70%+。子品牌增長勢頭良好，且公司前期佈局的FILA專業運動線也進入了測試狀態。2）線上方面，FILA品牌電商銷售勢頭良好，實現80%+增長。其他品牌我們估計迪桑特、KOLON等其他品牌終端仍然維持良好勢頭增長，實現30%-35%增長，其中迪桑特表現更佳，上半年已經進入盈利狀態，Q3維持了良好的增長勢頭。
購收購AmerSports事項穩步推進，國內業務整合加快。以安踏為首的財團收購AmerSports後成立新董事會將對Amer未來5年業務發展進行規劃，希望經整合後的Amer集團未來每年實現收入10%-15%的增長。當前公司加強始祖鳥、索羅門等品牌在中國市場的發展，已經逐步開展門店收歸直營，電商團隊組建等工作。AmerSports主要盈利季在秋冬，收購事項及虧損給安集團H1帶來4.9億虧損，我們預計全年對安踏集團報表帶來微增。
盈利預測與投資建議。作為本土體育服飾龍頭，品牌矩陣完善，主品牌穩健，FILA高速增長。同時公司戰略性收購Amer，打開國際化大門。我們預計公司2019/2020/2021年淨利潤為56.3/70.5/86.7億元，給予目標市值2200億港幣，目標價82港幣，對應2020年PE28倍，維持“買入”評級。
風險提示：多品牌及海外業務開展不順；人民幣匯率變動帶來業績波動。
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