長城汽車( 2333.HK) 9月銷量數據點評：9月銷量增長繼續跑贏行業，給予”增持”評級
機構：西部證券
評級：增持
事件：公司發佈2019年9月產銷快報，全月銷售汽車100,019輛，同比增長15.3%；1~9月累計銷售汽車724,113萬輛，同比增長7.01%。
9月銷量超預期，同比繼續跑贏行業。公司9月銷售汽車100,019輛，同比增長15.3%，同比增速大幅跑贏行業21.3pct（同期乘用車整體銷量同比下降6.0%）。1~9月公司累計銷售汽車724,113萬輛，同比增長7.01%，累計同比增速大幅跑贏行業18.3pct（同期乘用車銷量累計同比下降11.3%）。
多款車型銷量環比高增長，M6銷量持續攀升。9月哈弗系列（H、M、F）銷量佔比75.2%，仍然是公司銷量貢獻的主導力量。其中，哈弗H6銷售31,711輛，環比增長26.4%，環比增速較上月大幅提高。哈弗F7銷售12,304輛，環比增長22.6%，月銷量保持在萬輛之上。M6銷售15,108輛，同比大幅增長131.5%，環比大幅增長125.1%，M6自7月推出2019款車型後，銷量持續攀升，目前月銷已回到2018年的歷史高點。WeyVV6銷售5,093輛，同比增長69.7%，環比增長18.2%，環比增速由負轉正，月銷量已基本穩定在4,000~5,000輛。歐拉系列合計銷量1,877輛，環比增長53.2%，補貼退坡透支的影響正在減弱。
股權激勵激發員工活力，期待新車型表現。近期，公司已推出H2國六版本，VV72020年度改款，全新VV7GT等車型，後續將繼續推出多個車型的年度改款及VV7/VV7GT插混、炮等全新車型，明年下半年公司也將推出全新平台產品，有助於繼續擴大份額、降本增效。公司已發佈股權激勵預案，體現了公司持續做大做強的決心。公司9月銷量超預期，股權激勵有望為公司帶來新活力，我們上調公司2019-2021年預測EPS至0.45/0.58/0.64元，按10月15日H股股價5.26港元，對應H股10.5/8.1/7.5倍PE，上調至“增持”評級；按10月15日A股股價7.91元，對應A股17.6/13.6/12.4倍PE。
風險提示：新產品銷售不及預期；價格戰加劇。
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