寶龍地產(01238.HK):配售優化財務,銷售增速強勁,維持“買入”評級,目標價6.3港元
機構:興業證券
投資要點
維持“買入”評級,目標價6.3港元:今年仍然是寶龍的高速增長年,在保證物業銷售規模的同時,投資物業的發展也進入快車道,公司在商業領域的持續投入和深耕得到市場認可,目前公司是行業內稀缺的商業地產標的。此次配售對公司業績攤薄有限,有利於改善公司的財務指標以及流動性。我們維持公司“買入”評級,目標價6.3港元,對應2019/2020年PE為9.5/7.2倍,公司保持穩健派息,派息比率達到35%,當前股息收益率超過5%。
完成配售,優化財務指標:公司以“先舊後新”方式配售1.466億新股,佔擴大後股份總數約為3.54%,配售價5.4港元,完成配售後公司所得款項淨額為7.81億港元,公司計劃用於業務發展或投資以及一般營運資金。我們認為此次配售對公司業績攤薄有限,有利於優化公司的財務指標,我們預計到2019年底,公司的淨負債率將繼續下降。
銷售增速強勁:截止2019年9月,公司的合約銷售金額和麪積分別為451億元和278萬平米,分別同比增長57%和46%,銷售增速行業領先;銷售均價超過16000元每平米。公司中期將銷售目標由500億上調至550億元,按照當前銷售進度,全年有望超額完成銷售目標。公司今年貨值充足,銷售增速遠超行業平均水平。
土地儲備充足:截至2019年中期,公司的總土地儲備為2437萬平米,可供公司未來4-5年發展,且平均土地成本為2701元/平米,佔銷售均價比例不到20%,盈利空間有保證。公司聚焦深耕長三角,上半年新增土儲95%位於長三角,且住宅+商業的模式為公司帶來成本較低的土地,上半年新增土地成本為5130元/平米,溢價率僅為12.7%。
風險提示:宏觀經濟增長放緩、行業調控政策加嚴、流動性收緊、商品房銷售不及預期、人民幣貶值、租金收入不及預期。
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