高盛：將長實集團納入“確信買入”名單 將恆隆地產評級降至“沽售”
高盛發表報告指，在宏觀不確定性影響增加的情況下，該行認為香港樓市前路並不平坦，在低息環境有可能持續的背景下，該行估計樓市將呈高樓價、低成交的情況，並調整了對住宅樓價的預期，料2019-2020年樓價將為零增長，有別於早前預期分別為0%及3%的增長，意味樓價將自今年上半年的水平下跌約10%，並料2021年住宅樓價可按年升3%。
該行估計，短期內港府政策將圍繞使用農地、土地重劃升級用途或土地共享、空置税以及按揭保險計劃等，認為措施將減緩供應緊張的情況，並推動置業，但認為短期內未見房屋供應有重大轉變。
高盛預期2019至2020年本港零售商場租金將分別跌2%及8%(此前預測各為持平及升2%)，以反映人民幣持續走弱及宏觀不確定因素對旅客及本地消息的影響。在寫字樓方面，該行預期2019及2020年租金將分別跌3%及5%，主要因為貿易戰持續，自次季起影響到中資及跨國企業的需求。
該行重申對恆基地產(00012.HK)買入評級，並在“確信買入”名單內，目標價微降至52港元；同時將長實集團(01113.HK)亦納入“確信買入”名單，評級“買入”，將目標價由75港元降至74港元，該行認為公司有較高的可持續收入，可帶動主動資本管理的潛力，加上在香港本地市場覆蓋面相對少。
高盛維持對新地(00016.HK)及信和置業(00083.HK)“買入”評級，但將新地剔出“確信買入”名單，認為自2018年2月將公司納入名單之後，股價跌約14%，認為表現走弱主要因為行業走勢以及公司在港有較多業務。
該行亦將恆隆地產(00101.HK)評級由“中性”降至“沽售”，主要基於人民幣弱勢、本地零售偏軟等，將目標價降至18港元；而該行亦將太古地產(01972.HK)評級則由“沽售”升至“中性”，目標價由29港元降至27.8港元。
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