萬洲國際(00288.HK):中美經貿磋商取得階段性進展,中國有望增加採購美國農副產品,維持“買入”
機構:廣發證券
評級:買入
中美經貿高級磋商結束,第一階段協議有望達成,中國進口美國豬肉有望增加
據新華社報道,2019年11月19日,新一輪中美經貿高級別磋商在華盛頓結束。雙方在兩國元首重要共識指導下,就共同關心的經貿問題進行了坦誠、高效、建設性的討論。雙方在農業、知識產權保護、匯率、金融服務、擴大貿易合作、技術轉讓、爭端解決等領域取得實質性進展。
特朗普宣佈,美國與中國達成一項“非常實質性的第一階段協議”,建立一個臨時休戰協議有助於結束18個月的貿易戰。據農場農業部數據,截至9月底全國能繁母豬存欄同比下降38.9%,環比下降2.8%;生豬存欄同比下降41.1%,環比下降3%。我國生豬供應缺口預計將在一段時間內仍將維持高位;假設貿易談判達成,加徵關税取消,中國從美國進口豬肉數量將會大幅增加,萬洲國際作為我國最大的肉類貿易進口商將收益。另一方面,如果貿易協議達成,美國豬肉出口增加,有望提振美國生豬價格,利好Smithfield生豬養殖業務。
預計2019-2021年業績分別為0.07、0.09和和0.10美元/股
預計豬價將上行帶動公司養殖業務和出口業務收入,公司肉製品結構調整和屠宰行業集中度提升有望為公司收入貢獻增長。我們預計公司2019、2020和2021年的EPS為0.07、0.09和0.10美元每股,當前價格對應2019-2021年PE倍數為12.60、10.11和9.42倍。考慮未來兩年盈利能力增強,給予2020年12倍PE,對應合理價值為8.47HKD/股,維持“買入”評級。
風險提示:1、美國生豬出欄大幅低於預期2、豬價快速上漲,肉製品和屠宰銷量宰業務利潤受到擠壓3、肉製品及新鮮肉銷量低於預期。

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