【方正宏观】如何理解CPI、PPI的冰火两重天？
作者：王丹、陶川
来源：川阅全球宏观
2019年9月份，CPI同比3.0%，前值2.8%，市场预期2.8%；PPI同比-1.2%，前值-0.8%，市场预期-1.3%；
核心观点
9月CPI同比扩大至3.0%、PPI同比则降至-1.2%，二者分化加剧，本质是当前经济供给冲击和需求收缩均有所加剧。9月猪价同比涨幅接近70%并带动一系列肉类消费品价格普涨，当前能繁母猪存栏和生猪存栏仍未见底，猪瘟疫情带来的供给冲击将持续至明年下半年。而CPI服务项持续回落、PPI生产资料项通缩加剧，则显示了需求收缩的影响。展望后市，猪肉供给冲击将支撑CPI进一步上行，尤其是1月份叠加春节错位因素CPI大概率破“4”；CPI向PPI传导、逆周期政策发力，以及供改带来的产能利用率保持韧性，当前PPI处于磨底的过程中。
猪涨价向肉类消费品传导，CPI触“3”。9月CPI同比涨幅扩大至3.0%，高于市场2.8%的一致预期。三因素拆分法来看，食品与非食品项的分化继续加剧，食品项同比扩大至11.2%，较前值回升1.2个百分点；服务项则连续两个月走弱，同比降至1.3%（图表1），服务项的回落显示当前经济下行、尤其是稳就业压力有所加大（图表2）。食品分项来看，猪肉同比上涨69.3%，较前值扩大22.6个百分点，并带动牛肉、羊肉、水产品等肉类消费品大涨（图表3）。
猪周期将支撑1月份通胀破“4”。分析2007年、2010年和2015年三轮猪周期表现，猪肉涨价持续冲击在2年左右；同时，从生猪存栏领先出栏大概10个月左右的角度来看，当前生猪存栏和能繁母猪存栏的同比变化尚未见底，因此猪周期形成的通胀压力至少会持续至明年下半年（图表4）。尤其是1月份叠加春节错位的影响，CPI大概率将突破“4”。
翘尾因素拖累PPI继续下探，CPI涨价向PPI传导。9月PPI同比下降1.2%，较前值继续回落0.4个百分点，创下2016年7月以来新低。但结构拆分来看，9月PPI的下滑主要来自翘尾因素的拖累（图表5），9月PPI环比回升0.1个百分点，重回正增长。分结构来看，生产资料同比下降2.0%，降幅较前值扩大0.7个百分点，连续4个月处于通缩；生活资料同比较前值回升0.4个百分点至1.1%，生活资料的回升主要来自CPI涨价的传导，食品项同比上涨3.3%，较前值回升0.7个百分点（图表6）。
当前PPI处于磨底的过程中。展望后市，中性假设下国际油价缺乏大幅涨价的需求支撑；地产链条前端景气度明显回落（拿地领先新开工9个月左右），地产链条后端（3年前期房销售形成竣工和交付需求）修复还受到地产融资收紧的抑制；隐性债务约束叠加预算内财政前倾，基建需求回升较为乏力。整体来看，内需未见明显向上对冲动能，而翘尾因素拖累将拖累10月PPI继续下探，预计年内PPI大概率将继续在负区间内运行。同时，CPI向PPI传导（图表7）、逆周期政策边际加力，以及供改带来的产能利用率保持韧性，当前PPI处于磨底的过程中。
风险提示：猪瘟疫情恶化；原油供给形势变化；环保政策变化
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