渣打財富管理看好美股及A股 料港股現價下跌空間不大
渣打香港財富管理投資策略主管梁振輝在記者會上表示,雖然地緣政治或經濟下行等風險仍可能在第四季影響市場,中美亦難以在今年內全面達成貿易協議,但相信有關逆風將會轉向,投資機會或會較市場預料為佳。
他指今年美國及中國A股為環球表現最佳的其中兩個市場,在各地政府料接力推財政刺激措施的情況下,將全球股票持倉上調至「偏好」,其中,美股相比其他市場較具防守性,企業盈利亦有望在明年復甦,而內地A股估值吸引,且有潛在政策刺激作催化劑,因此繼續看好這兩個市場表現。板塊方面,美股偏好健康護理板塊,A股則看好消費類股份。
至於港股,梁振輝稱港股雖然近日有反彈,但對比去年基本上沒有升幅,而港股今年升幅與美股及A股有較大差距,相信在估值落差支持下港股現價再下跌空間不大。他預計,第四季港股或現炒股不炒市情況,指數變動未必太大,而近月社會事件雖帶來心理影響,但認為市場中長線最重要關注點仍為中美貿易戰問題對本港經濟的影響。
外匯方面,渣打香港財富管理投資顧問董事趙海珠稱,美聯儲減息限制美元上升空間,料美元匯率或將見頂回落。至於英國脫歐問題近日有進展,英鎊中長線估值亦被低估,因此看好英鎊在第四季的走勢,首個關鍵位為兌美元是否可升穿上一高位的1.27。人民幣方面,她稱走勢主要視乎中美貿易談判情況,預期短期兌美元或將在7.07至7.1979內區間波動。
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