比亞迪股份(01211.HK):短期盈利承壓,看好長期發展潛力,維持“增持”評級,目標價44港元
機構:輝立證券
評級:增持
目標價:44港元
投資概要
多因素成造成7/8月月新能源車銷量下滑
補貼退坡造成的提前消費透支了中國下半年新能源車需求,宏觀經濟疲弱,中美貿易糾紛打壓了車市部分消費者的潛在購買需求,觀望氣氛濃重,近年來發展迅速的新能源車市場也開始受波及,行業龍頭比亞迪亦面臨衝擊。另一方面,去年補貼政策變動導致比亞迪新能源車銷量前低後高特徵明顯,我們預計今年前高後低趨勢下,下半年起同比增速將難有起色。比亞迪7月和8月的新能源汽車銷量分別下滑11.8%和23.4%,至16,567輛和16,719輛。
競爭依舊激烈,但補貼退坡的邊際效應正在遞減
我們認為,目前新能源車型的國補金額已經被壓縮到1-2.5萬元,2020年全面取消對車企的負面效應進一步遞減,具備規模優勢的企業在電池成本,産出效率和零部件成本等方面佔據先機,抗風險能力更強。
短期盈利承壓,看好長期發展潛力
上半年公司錄得歸屬淨利潤14.55億元,同比增長203.61%,主要因為新能源汽車銷量大升所致。上半年公司共銷售汽車22.8萬輛,同比增長1.6%,其中新能源乘用車14.1萬輛,同比大增98%,在新能源汽車領域的市場佔有率從2018年的20%左右上升至期內的24%。公司同步公告了19年第三季度業績區間為1至3億元,同比下滑71%-90%,主要因為補貼退坡和汽車市場下滑影響新能源車需求。
面對不斷增多的競爭對手,憑藉十年深耕本土市場積累,比亞迪開始加速推出新車型,幷繼續開放供應鏈體系,提升自身競爭力。公司上半年推出了新一代唐EV、宋MAX插混、元EV,和主攻中低端市場的e系列産品「e1」和SUV車型「S2」,下半年將陸續推出e2、e3、全新秦EV等車型,進一步完善産品佈局。
2019年7月公司已與豐田汽車達成合作,共同開發面向中國市場的電動車型。作為國內和國際的電動車龍頭,雙方在汽車和三電領域擁有各具特色的技術優勢和豐富的研發經驗,此次合作或將對公司的長遠發展與行業的競爭格局産生深遠影響。
投資建議
雖然2019年三季報業績預告低於預期,但比亞迪近年來的技術進步和轉型落地對公司整體競爭實力的再次激活正幫助其在即將到來的洗牌期擴大市場份額,為未來迎來業績兑現奠定基礎。我們看好公司未來更穩健和可持續的成長軌跡。估值上,我們調整目標價至44港元,相當於2019/2020年預計市淨率2.0/1.9倍,市盈率36.8/35.5倍,維持增持評級。(現價截至10月10日)
Follow us
Find us on
Facebook,
Twitter ,
Instagram, and
YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the
uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app!

Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements. Any calculations or images in the article are for illustrative purposes only.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please carefully consider your personal risk tolerance, and consult independent professional advice if necessary.