偉能集團(01608.HK)：緬甸市場闊步前進，重申“買入”評級
機構：招商銀行
評級：買入
偉能集團10月9日作自願公告，稱公司與一個戰略合作伙伴共組聯合體在緬甸競得3個LNG發電項目，總容量為900兆瓦，而公司本身競得20兆瓦天然氣發電項目。我們相信這將是公司在緬甸市場業務拓展所邁出的重大一步，920兆瓦的項目規模對應2018年末緬甸電力市場裝機總規模達18.5%。這一批新項目將在2020年上半年投入運營，我們預期這些新的項目將在2020/21E年為公司貢獻利潤85.3/171.3百萬港元。
在5個招標中獲得4個項目中標。根據緬甸電力和能源部信息，緬甸國家發電企業（ElectricPowerGenerationEnterprise，EPGE）在2019年7月就1,040兆瓦燃氣發電項目進行邀請招標。偉能及戰略合作伙伴共組聯合體成功競得3個LNG發電項目，項目為5年期規模共計900兆瓦，而偉能本身則獨家獲得了20兆瓦的天然氣發電項目。結合偉能目前在緬甸已經投運的項目，公司合共將在緬甸運營及參與1,284兆瓦項目，佔公司目前在運及已確認項目總規模的77.8%。我們認為公司及其參與的聯合體成功競標顯示了公司在東南亞發展中國家市場提供發電服務的強勁的市場競爭力。
新項目將自2020年上半年末投運，貢獻將主要來自聯營利潤分享。根據公司信息，緬甸項目聯合體重的策略性合作伙伴將是一家中國國有企業，該企業除了對項目提供財務資源以外，還將參與到項目的日常運營當中，意味偉能將可能在900兆瓦項目公司中持少數股權。由於緬甸新項目體量較大，我們認為持有少數股權將使公司免於承擔過重的財務負擔。我們測算新項目將對偉能在2020/21年帶來有效權益裝機分別為231/462兆瓦，對應2019年中的裝機規模分別增長31.6/63.3%。
2020年盈利增速將顯著加快。基於偉能緬甸項目情況的更新，我們測算公司將在2020/21年分貨從該批項目中獲得聯營公司利潤分別為85.7/171.3百萬港元。我們據此將公司2020/21年每股盈利分別上調22.1/29.3%至16/26港仙。我們對公司原業務的DCF估值大致不變，並對新增緬甸項目的估值為每股0.34港元。我們將偉能目標價上調12.4%至每股3.25港元，對應2020/21年市盈率分別為20.3/12.7倍，重申買入評級。
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