大摩：升騰訊(0700.HK)第三季非通用會計準則純利預測2%至251億人幣
大摩發表的研究報告指，將騰訊(00700.HK)2019年銷售預測下調2%，但維持按非通用會計準則計算的盈利預測。該行指出銷售放慢或為騰訊股價帶來壓力，但相信受惠策略升級，在消費者及工業互聯網層面的努力將逐步浮現，重申“增持”評級，目標價430港元。
該行將公司第三季收入預測下調3%至973億元人民幣(下同)，按年升21%、按季則升10%，主要因為受監管不確定性以及競爭增加影響，媒體廣告收入放慢，而社交廣告方面則維持健康。而在手遊收入方面，料貢獻將主要在今年第四季。另外公司在金融科技及高業服務方面均有温和增長。正面來看，按非通用會計準則計算，該行將公司第三季的淨利預測上調2%至251億元，意味按年增長27%、按季增長7%，主要因為該行上調了其經營利潤預測，受惠效率改善經營利潤率將為32%。該行估算其銷售及營銷開支將佔2019年收入的5.3%(2014年為9.9%)，而一般及行政開支則佔收入的13.7%(2014年為17.9%)，反映其效率有改善。
在線上遊戲方面，該行估算第三季手遊收入將按年增長28%，增速較次季的26%有所加快，主要受惠《王者榮耀》勢頭強勁，以及來自《和平精英》的貢獻增加，隨着數款新遊戲陸續推出，該行估計第四季公司手遊收入增速將加快至按年升30%。大摩認為騰訊在海外市場亦有進展，《Call of Duty》手機版於10月1日在海外市場正式推出，首周已錄破紀錄1億次下載，而成功將Activitsion Blizzard的遊戲轉化為手機版，相信亦有賴於公司強勁的研發能力。
在線上廣告方面該行估計第三季相關收入將按年升12%，增速較次季的16%有所放慢，主要受媒體廣告及去年世界盃的高基數影響，而騰訊視頻亦面對着宏觀及監管方面的挑戰。而在金融科技及企業服務方面，該行估計第三季相關收入將按年升33%，主要受企業支付、金融科技及雲業務帶動。
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