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郭家耀: 港股或挑战26,800阻力 内银估值重评空间料不大
阿思达克 10-14 10:09

正荣金融业务部副总裁郭家耀称,美股上周五(11日)大幅造好,中美贸易谈判达成首阶段协议,利好市场气氛,三大指数均录得1%升幅收市。美元走势靠稳,美国十年期债息回升至1.72厘水平,避险情绪降温,金价显着回落。港股预托证券大致向好,预料大市早段跟随外围高开。内地股市表现向好,中美达成协议消息提振市场气氛,沪综指高开高走,收市上升0.9%,沪深两市成交额亦增加至4,565亿元人民币。

受外围消息带动,港股大幅反弹,重上多条移动平均线之上水平。外围走势有望继续向好,指数有机会挑战26,800点阻力,下方支持在26,000点水平。

另评级机构穆迪日前发表报告,维持对中国银行业的稳定展望,原因是行业流动性稳定,并且资本充足。报告指出,中国银行业的资产质量将受益於政府的支持性政策,国有企业借款人大体稳固的偿债能力,以及银行不断增加的不良贷款处置。

虽然风险加权资产快速增长,但资本内生能力和较强的资本发行情况将支持银行业的稳定资本水平。报告又表示,银行业的流动性也将因支持性政策而保持稳定。不过,存款竞争加剧和银行间市场资金来源渠道波动或对中国的小型银行造成挑战。中央采取的支持性政策将在未来12至18个月支持中资银行的资产质量,银行的资本和流动性也将保持充足。

不过,由於较宽松的货币政策和利率改革造成资产收益率下降,以及企业杠杆率较高和经济增长减缓使得信贷成本持续高企,中国银行业的盈利能力将会削弱。整体银行业展望维持稳定,但盈利表现难有突出表现,估值重估的空间不大。

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