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融創中國(01918.HK):銷售表現強勁,衝刺全年目標,維持“買入”評級,目標價55.3 港元
格隆匯 10-14 09:24

機構:廣發證券

評級:買入

目標價:55.3 港元

核心觀點:

銷售強勁,創歷史同期新高

2019年9月融創中國實現銷售金額629.1億人民幣(下同),同比增長18%,創歷史9月最高銷售規模,僅低於2017年12月創下的最高單月銷售規模641.6億元。9月銷售面積430.2萬方,同比增長21.8%,銷售均價14620元/平,同比下降3.2%。1-9月融創實現累計銷售金額3694.9億元,同比增長16%,完成全年銷售目標67.2%,完成進度較歷史同期基本持平。年初至今公司銷售增長完全由面積帶動,推貨走量決心堅定。從歷史數據來看,下半年通常為公司推貨銷售的高峯,Q3及Q4銷售佔整體總量比重超過60%。四季度公司預計可售貨值規模在4170億元左右,完成全年銷售目標5500億元可能性較大。

土地投資策略轉變,拿地力度下降明顯

根據克而瑞房企拿地統計,Q3公司拿地總面積716萬方,同比下降30.1%,對應拿地金額132億元,同比下降51.3%。三季度以來公司拿地力度出現較為明顯的下降,面積口徑拿地力度由一二季度的442%、250%降至68%,金額口徑力度則由100%、70%降至8%。當前公司整體儲備充足情況下,三季度適當降低拿地力度有助於公司整體資金週轉及貨值排布,擇時從容低價獲取土儲。

19-20年業績對應動態PE為為5.6x、4.2x

預計公司2019-2021年歸母淨利潤分別為233/309/352億元,19-20年業績對應動態PE5.6x、4.2x,因此我們維持合理價值為55.3港幣/股,對應19年動態PE9.5x,維持“買入”評級。

風險提示

景氣程度不斷下降,新進入城市去化放緩,影響公司的銷售情況。

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