吉利汽車(00175.HK)：9月批發降幅繼續收窄，基本追平行業，維持“強推”評級，目標價15.6港元
機構：華創證券
評級：強推
目標價：15.6港元
事項：
吉利公佈9月批發銷量，全月11.4萬輛，同比-9%、環比+12%。
評論：
批發略超預期，10月預計降幅進一步收窄。公司9月批發11.3萬輛，略高於我們此前10-11萬預期區間，對應同比-9%、環比+12%，預計同比增速與行業相仿（行業10月12日公佈），增速差繼續收窄。出口繼續環比小幅回落至2,663輛，對應出口同環比分別為+13%、-17%。內銷則為11.1萬輛，同比-9%、環比-17%。考慮公司2018年10月與9月批發量相仿（12.9萬和12.4萬），10月批發降幅可能進一步收窄。
預計渠道庫存環比略增。我們預計吉利9月上險9.5-10.5萬輛，按10.0萬輛，同比-16%、環比+14%。對應渠道庫存變動+1.6萬至+0.6萬輛，庫存係數+0.0至-0.3個月達到1.8--1.5個月。吉利9-10月廠家對經銷商繼續政策鬆綁，延續了2季度以來的渠道管理政策取向，經銷商提車及庫存壓力不大。
分車型看，邊際增量主要來自於博越、帝豪GS、領克03：
1)博越：2.1萬輛，同比+1%、環比+17%，受博越Pro上市帶動；
2)帝豪GS：1.1萬輛，同比-20%、環比+51%；
3)領克：合計1.4萬輛，同比-8%、環比+24%，以領克03增量為主，9月6,528輛環比+28%。
根據我們測算，8月吉利品牌銷售均價7.9萬元，同比+0.03萬元、環比-0.10萬元，環比均價下降主要由於單價較高的帝豪EV銷量環比下降1,900輛至430
輛。
投資建議：吉利作為自主龍頭，國內份額、中高端車型、海外市場有充足成長空間，隨汽車週期性回暖帶來配置價值。我們維持預計公司19-20年銷量143萬、188萬輛，同比-4%、+31%，歸母淨利92億、143億人民幣，同比-27%、+55%，取1港幣兑0.90元人民幣，對應19-20PE12倍、8.0倍，19-20PB2.3倍、1.8倍。公司16年以來平均PE15倍，中樞14倍，考慮行業景氣與公司銷量增速有望逐步修復，維持2019年目標PE14倍，維持目標價15.6港元，對應2020年PE9.0倍，維持“強推”評級。
風險提示：國內宏觀經濟不及預期、乘用車需求回暖不及預期、領克銷量回暖不及預期、新車型銷量爬坡不及預期。
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