大和:下調友邦(1299.HK)目標價至95港元 評級“買入”
大和發表的研究報告指,估計友邦保險(01299.HK)首三季新業務價值增長將為13%,按實際匯率計算增長則為10%,反映第三季新業務價值按年跌2%。該行指出在香港市場方面,受社會運動自7月以來升温影響,內地旅客的新業務明顯受影響,因為新客不願意到訪香港,而獨立理財顧問渠道特別受到影響,相關業務貢獻友邦香港新業務價值約三成。該行理解過去數月相關渠道競爭環境轉差,因為一些競爭對手正嘗試撐起其新業務,但友邦在產品定價上仍維持剋制,估計友邦香港第三季新業務價值或錄雙位數的顯着跌幅。
在內地業務方面,該行相信可維持勢頭,但高基數或稍有影響。大和指出公司於天津及石家莊的分支於8月1日開始營運,並開發招募經紀,相信第三季友邦中國的新業務價值增長可達15%。如撇除香港區,該行估計其他地區的新業務價值可達10%,主要受友邦中國帶動,而其泰國及馬來西亞分支則料分別增7%及10%。
該行假設香港社會不穩的情況將維持6個月(有別於早前預測的3個月),料2019年的新業務價值增長將為13%,對2019-21年的盈利預測將削2%-4%,目標價由98港元降至95港元,重申“買入”評級,相信香港的影響只屬暫時性,不會影響友邦的結構性增長。
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