《大行報告》中金:中海油(00883.HK)跌幅超油價回落幅度 市場低估資產價值
中金發表報告表示,於9月27日在香港組織了中海油(00883.HK)非交易路演。管理層分享了有關公司成本控制、遠期規劃和併購戰略的更多信息。總體而言,會議的反饋相當積極,該行維持中海油「跑贏行業」評級及目標價15.5元,此按現金流折現率作估值,相當預測今年市淨率1倍。
該行指,受到油價回落至沙特石油生產設施遭受無人機襲擊前的水平,以及中海油管理層變動的影響,令公司股價表現疲弱,跌幅甚至超過了油價回落幅度。該行認為,公司致力於實現有投資紀律的增長,市場低估了公司的優質資產價值。
中金引述中海油非交易路演情況,中海油稱計劃逐步擴大其資本開支,以支撐其2025年200萬桶油當量/天的產量目標。該行預計,2019年中海油的資本開支將達到780億元人民幣(下同)的目標水平,2020年將增長至870億元,2021年有望進一步增長至1,050億元,突破千億元大關並接近其2014年的峰值1,065億元。
就進軍陸上非常規天然氣領域。該行指,中海油最近從母公司手中收購了中聯煤層氣公司,顯示其正在為進軍陸上非常規天然氣做準備。目前中聯煤層氣公司主要從事煤層氣的勘探與開採業務,以及少量的致密氣業務。該行預計未來中聯煤層氣公司有望加大勘探力度,並進軍頁岩氣領域。
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