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協合新能源(0182.HK):運營理想,估值偏低
格隆匯 10-11 08:30

機構:中泰國際

2019年首三季風電發電量同比增長28.2%

公司剛剛公佈了2019年9月發電量數字。權益總髮電量同比上升7.6%至287GWh,其中風電及太陽能發電量分別同比增長7.8%和6.7%至251GWh和36GWh。換言之,公司2019年首三季權益總髮電量同比增長26.2%至3,236GWh;風電及太陽能發電量則分別同比上升28.2%和13.4%至2,856GWh和381GWh。今年首三季風電發電量同比增長率低於2018年同期之68.0%,因為公司於去年成功轉型為風電發電商,2017年的基數明顯較低。

預期裝機容量持續上升

公司不斷透過出售低效率項目及併購優質項目以擴大運營規模。我們預計權益風電裝機容量於2019年和2020年分別同比淨增長300MW及400MW(即15.3%及17.8%)至2,263MW和2,663MW。

華能新能源或被私有化可提升市場對風電板塊的關注

華能集團近期提出私有化華能新能源(958HK;買入;目標價3.10港元)H股之計劃,可提升市場對風電板塊的關注的關注。我們認為這有利風電板塊估值。

估值偏低

根據實際發電量數字和我們對公司裝機容量增長的看法,我們推算公司2019年和2020年股東淨利潤最少可分別同比增長29.5%及30.8%至人民幣6.5億及8.5億。根據2019年10月8日的收市價,公司的2020年市盈率為3.5倍。公司估值偏低。

風險提示:(一)併網電價大幅下跌;(二)應收賬款風險惡化;(三)項目開發延誤

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