滔搏 (6110.HK ) :運動零售龍頭,盡享行業景氣,首次覆蓋給予“買入”評級
機構:國盛證券
評級:買入
中國最大的運動用品零售商。作為中國運動鞋服零售商龍頭,公司與Nike、Adidas、Puma、Converse、Timberland等許多頂級國際運動鞋服品牌戰略合作,其中Nike與Adidas貢獻收入近90%。截至FY2019,滔搏旗下運營8343家直營門店/1080家批發商門店(含單品牌店和集合店)。公司FY2017-2019營業收入/歸母淨利潤CAGR分別為22%/22%,FY2019(2月28日)實現收入325.6億元、同增23%,歸母淨利潤22.0億元、同增53%,(調整股份獎勵費用及業務合併費用後為22.36億元,同增24%)。
運動鞋服行業風景獨好、龍頭對話。2018年中國運動鞋服市場總額約為401億美元,同比增長19.5%。我們認為這一市場在未來五年將保持9%以上的CAGR,是極為景氣的消費細分領域。運動產業鏈已形成龍頭彼此對話的產業鏈格局:上游申洲國際為全球最大的運動服裝製造商(佔耐克訂單近20%)、中游品牌商CR4市佔率近70%、下游大型專業運動零售商(滔搏/寶勝佔中國市場15%/10%左右)和各品牌封閉分銷體系並存。此特徵使得各環節龍頭優勢顯著,全國性大型零售商在渠道佈局、零售管理及與品牌合作的深度上明顯佔優。
固有優勢顯著、零售能力突出、數字賦能領先。公司分別與Nike/Adidas合作二十/十二年,網點遍佈200餘個城市,佔據運動鞋服行業份額15%左右,已形成的固有優勢將保證其未來獲得最優質的貨品供應及網點議價能力。而其370萬的平均店效、42%/7%的毛利率/淨利率水平、103天的存貨週轉,充分顯示了其在貨品搭配、折扣控制、庫存管理、終端導購等方面的零售能力。而今,公司全面推動從員工/門店/商品管理等方面的數字化轉型:至FY2019已有超過6000家門店的逾15000名員工使用前線賦能數字工具包,每星期活躍用户比例逾90%。調整重塑後的TopFans會員計劃(會員數量達1420萬人,收入貢獻超過50%),打造高互動性的消費者社羣。
投資建議。我們認為中國運動鞋服市場正處高景氣中期,公司作為最大的細分行業零售龍頭,將充分分享行業景氣的高速增長。我們預計其FY2020-2022淨利潤為27.6/34.1/41.6億元,CAGR23%。公司首次全球發售9.3億股(香港發售9302萬股,國際發售約8.37億股),發行價8.5港元、對應市值527億港幣,對應PE為18/14/12倍。我們認為公司合理價值為14.38港幣,對應FY2020年PE為23倍,首次覆蓋給予“買入”評級。
風險提示:終端銷售放緩風險;品牌商合作變化帶來的運營風險;過高品牌客户依賴度風險。

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