海昌海洋公園(2255.HK)：海洋公園運營商龍頭，輕重並舉大有可為，給予“買入”評級
機構：東北證券
評級：買入
報告摘要：
主題公園行業前景光明，國內市場潛力巨大。海外主題公園市場發展成熟，馬太效應顯著，迪士尼樂園和SeaWorld主題樂園為發展較為成功的主題公園。2018年十大主題公園集團的總入園人次首度突破五億，約為全球人口總數的7%，同比增長5.4%。中國有3家企業入圍，接待遊客人次增幅遠高於其他國際主題公園。此外，我國主題公園分佈不均，以器械類遊樂園為主，以動物/海洋為主題的公園僅佔9%，這對全國性佈局的海洋類主題公園龍頭——海昌海洋公園是前所未有的發展機遇。
重資產業務多點佈局，新項目成未來利潤核心引擎。公司為國內唯一一家全國性佈局海洋主題公園運營商，目前已在全國9個省市運營10個項目。存量項目：增長穩健提供穩定現金流，通過改進升級，增強遊玩趣味性，提升客流量的同時延長園內停留時間，提升二次消費水平。上海旗艦項目：圍繞海洋文化特色，打造成世界級海洋主題公園，園內遊玩內容豐富，酒店、餐廳等配套設施完備，開業以來表現靚麗，且毗鄰上海迪士尼，協同效應強。三亞項目：首次嘗試開放式海洋主題公園，各項目單獨收費模式有望吸引更多遊客。鄭州項目：中原地區最大的海洋公園項目，米字形高鐵帶來龐大客流量，項目未來發展空間廣闊。
輕資產業務發力，挖掘品牌技術優勢。公司成立海昌文旅事業部，打造輕資產業務平台，以“品牌+管理+技術”為主線，通過合作模式將自身核心競爭力轉化為市場生產力。隨着未來公司輕資產業務不斷拓展，負債壓力將大幅減弱，盈利能力不斷提升。
投資建議：預計公司2019-2021年營收為33.11/39.04/44.11億元，同比增長85%/18%/13%；歸母淨利潤為2.93/4.92/6.13億元，同比增長641%/68%/25%；對應P/E分別為16倍/10倍/8倍，給予“買入”評級。
風險提示：上海項目不及預期；鄭州項目推進不及預期；輿論風險
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