香港交易所(0388.HK ) :棄購消除不確定性,估值重回基本面,維持“增持”評級
機構:中信證券
評級:增持
港交所放棄與倫交所合併的要約,收購事項帶來的不確定性消除,估值壓力減輕,市場關注將重回基本面。當前日均成交額仍處歷史低位,本港事件仍在發酵中。但只要全球投資者不放棄中國大市場,港交所仍然是全球投資者首選的交易場所之一,維持“增持”評級。
▍事項:10月8日,香港交易所公告稱香港交易所董事會決定不再繼續本次對倫敦交易所的合併要約。香港交易所及其一致行動人需遵守英國《城市收購及合併守則》第2.8條的限制條款,僅下列情形除外:①倫敦證券交易所集團董事會贊成或同意的情況下;②任何第三方宣佈對倫敦證券交易所集團作出要約的確實意圖;③倫敦證券交易所集團公佈“清洗交易”建議或反收購;④英國收購與合併委員會認為情況出現重大變動;⑤委員會同意的其他情況。
▍收購事項帶來前景及業務不確定性消除,估值壓力減輕。截至10月7日收盤,香港交易所股價較9月11日公告日累計下跌8.13%,同期恆生指數下跌4.93%,反映市場對倫交所收購方案隱含較高估值的負面反饋。隨着香港交易所明確放棄收購事項,根據2.8條限制條款,在未來6個月內,港交所不得對倫交所作出或參與要約或可能要約,也不得作出任何可能確認與倫交所有重大關係資產購買意向的陳述等。預計倫交所將在今年11月的股東特別大會上尋求股東批准對Refinitiv的收購,且李小加也已發表網誌明確放棄收購,因此本次事件無論從事實還是法律角度都已塵埃落定。收購事項帶來的短期股價擾動因素消除,估值壓力也將隨之減輕。
▍香港本地事件仍在持續發酵中,對交易量、融資額的負面影響仍在顯現。9月日均成交額758億港元,較8月再次下滑12%,受宏觀及中美貿易爭端影響,預計短期日均成交額仍將維持低位。資金向新加坡流出趨勢明顯,資金穩定性對交易量產生間接壓力。儘管這部分資金依然要通過港交所實現大陸公司股票交易,目前還沒有更好的替代,但資金轉出後,其選擇餘地變大,有可能間接影響交易量。
▍投資建議:估值處於歷史中樞偏低區域,維持“增持”評級。儘管本地事件帶來的影響短期難以消除,且在一定程度上削弱港交所的制度比較優勢和戰略實施進展,但我們強調只要全球投資者不放棄中國大市場,港交所仍然是全球投資者首選的交易場所之一。港交所在吸引海外資金投資中國,以及讓中國資金在可控前提下投資海外方面,依然具有獨特優勢。維持公司 2019/2020/2021年EPS預測7.6/8.4/9.4港元,對應2019/2020/2021年PE估值分別為30/27/25倍,維持目標價265港元,對應2019年35xPE,維持“增持”評級。
▍風險因素:宏觀經濟放緩超預期,日均成交量持續疲弱,戰略規劃實施進度低於預期;香港本地事件演進超預期。

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