融創中國(1918.HK)：2019年9月銷售靚麗，精準拿地，行穩致遠，維持“強推”評級
機構：華創證券
評級：強推
事件：
10月8日，融創中國公佈公司9月銷售數據，2019年9月公司實現合同銷售金額629.1億元，同比增長17.9%；實現合同銷售面積430.2萬平方米，同比增長21.8%。合同銷售均價14,620元/平米，同比下降3.2%。1-9月，公司累計實現簽約金額3,694.9億元，同比增長15.8%；實現累計簽約面積2,531.8萬平方米，同比增長22.6%。
點評：
9月銷售629.1億、同比+18%，高基數下實現高增速，全年衝刺5,500億元
9月公司實現合同銷售金額629.1億元，環比+22.7%、同比+17.9%；實現合同銷售面積430.2萬平方米，環比+22.3%、同比+21.8%，銷售進入高基數階段，並增速靚麗；銷售均價14,620元/平米，環比+0.3%、同比-3.2%。1-9月，公司累計實現簽約金額3,694.9億元，同比+15.8%，較前值+0.4pct，累計銷售金額克而瑞排名位居行業第四，排名較上月提升一位，考慮到公司推盤和銷售高峯期集中在下半年，後續銷售排名有望保持領先；累計實現簽約面積2,531.8萬平米，同比+22.6%，較前值-0.2pct；累計銷售均價14,590元/平米，同比-5.6%。公司19H2預計可售貨值約5,722億元，可售貨值充裕。全年計劃銷售5,500億元，對應同比+19.4%，對應19H2可售貨值去化率約59%，考慮到公司佈局聚焦於一二線城市及環一線熱點城市，預計完成全年銷售目標難度不大。
把握窗口期低溢價拿地，土儲豐富優質、成本低，保障後續銷售和結算利潤率
按18年末土儲1.66億方、19H1末土儲2.04億方、19H1結轉建面536萬方、假設並表比例60%、均價1.45萬元/平米，估算19H1拿地建面約4,693萬方，對應貨值約6,805億元；19Q1公司精準把握拿地窗口期，招拍掛拿地平均溢價率21%，19Q2嚴控拿地標準，規避拿高價地風險。截至目前，公司總土儲2.13億方，對應貨值2.82萬億元，一二線貨值佔比83%，權益土儲1.36億方，平均土地成本4,307元/平米，佔比19H1銷售均價僅29.6%。公司土儲充裕、成本低、聚焦於一二線，保障後續穩健發展和結算利潤率，並預計後續拿地壓力較小。
投資建議：銷售靚麗，精準拿地，行穩致遠，維持“強推”評級
融創中國堅持深耕一二線，以逆週期擴張策略，成功在15-17年逆勢加槓桿擴張，並藉以併購擴張的標籤優勢，打造了厚實優質土儲以及低廉土地成本的強大優勢，利於實現快週轉及高毛利率，預示後續銷售和業績“量質提升”，同時隨業績集中釋放，淨負債率望顯著下降、帶動融資成本下行，形成錦上添花。此外，公司作為行業龍頭之一也有望充分受益“融資、拿地、銷售”集中度三重跳增。我們維持公司2019-21年每股收益預測5.69、7.38、9.57元，目前對應19年PE僅5.1倍，我們繼續看好公司銷售和業績的持續雙雙高增，維持目標價60.00港元，維持“強推”評級。
風險提示：房地產市場銷量超預期下行以及行業資金超預期收緊
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