You are browsing the Hong Kong website, Regulated by Hong Kong SFC (CE number: BJA907). Investment is risky and you must be cautious when entering the market.
融創中國(1918.HK):單月銷售再創紀錄,土地投資張弛有度
格隆匯 10-09 17:03

機構:東方證券

事件

公司公告2019年9月銷售情況。公司9月實現銷售金額、銷售面積分別為629.1億元、430.2萬方,分別增長18%、22%。

核心觀點

單月銷售超600億,創公司歷史單月銷售次高紀錄。公司9月實現單月銷售金額629.1億元,同比增長18%,629.1億的單月銷售金額也是僅次於2017年12月的歷史第二高紀錄。公司1~9月實現累計銷售金額3694.9億元,同比增長16%,全年銷售規模突破5000億將是大概率事件。在當前去化情況整體下滑的環境中,公司仍能取得創紀錄的銷售成績實屬不易,這與公司深耕重點一二線城市的發展戰略密不可分,同時未來的房地產市場,產品力的地位將愈發重要,這亦是公司的優勢所在。

維持審慎土地投資策略,相機而動尋找優質項目。根據克而瑞土地榜單顯示,公司自下半年來大幅放緩了拿地節奏,公司8月單月拿地貨值為445億元,單月土地投資金額僅52.9億元,較前7月拿地均值下降60%。公司自5月起即調整了土地投資策略,幾乎暫停在公開市場拿地,在收併購及合作開發項目中擇優拿地。公司存量土儲量足質優,根據2019年中報數據,公司土儲建面2.13億平,對應貨值2.8萬億元,其中83%的貨值位於核心一二線城市,拿地均價僅4307元/平。

財務預測與投資建議

維持買入評級,維持目標價52.46港元。我們預測公司2019-2021年核心淨利潤每股收益為6.52/8.04/10.28元。可比公司2019年PE估值為7X,我們給予公司2019年PE倍數7X,對應目標價45.64元,摺合52.46港元。

風險提示

房地產銷售規模不及預期。佈局城市調控政策力度超預期。

土地儲備的拓展不及預期。

Follow us
Find us on Facebook, Twitter , Instagram, and YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app!
Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements. Any calculations or images in the article are for illustrative purposes only.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please carefully consider your personal risk tolerance, and consult independent professional advice if necessary.
uSMART
Wealth Growth Made Easy
Open Account