《大行报告》中金:可适当增内房股配置 荐龙湖、中海外及润地等
中金近日发表报告表示,认为内房前期政策端的一系列收紧措施(尤其是针对房企融资端)对实体市场的影响已逐步显现,伴随後市基本面各项指标进入下行通道,行业政策将进入观察期。考虑板块估值已回到历史低位(内房H股相当远期市盈率5.5倍),且龙头房企盈利增长确定性强,该行提示投资者可适当增加地产股配置,内房H股推荐龙湖(00960.HK)、中国海外(00688.HK)、华润置地(01109.HK)、世茂(00813.HK)、旭辉(00884.HK)和美的置业(03990.HK)。
该行指,近日到访的内地城市9月楼市延续降温态势,到访量、转化率、成交量、去化率等指标均按年下降,其中三四线城市经历3至4月「小阳春」後市场热度迅速下行,重庆和成都整体保持平稳。伴随市场降温,部分项目(特别是三、四线城市项目)已开始通过降价促销方式揽客(主要包括打折、返现、赠送购物卡等方式),且折扣力度高於去年同期水平。
中金表示,内房开发商对分销渠道的依赖度上升,平均佣金率由1%至3%,增到介乎3%至5%。到访项目平均销售目标完成度50%至70%,往前看,该行判断後续去化压力仍存,销售额达标压力较大,房企将通过积极推货和促销等方式加速销售去化。
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