植耀輝: 慎防美股大幅調整 海底撈、美團各有賣點
耀才證券研究部總監植耀輝稱，港股現時走勢確相當難測，有投資者會認為危中有機，但亦會有人認為還是離場觀望會更好，筆者屬於後者。可能情況未至太惡劣，但市場氣氛要收復亦需一段頗長時間；另外中美貿易新一輪談判在即，但亦很大機會如過去一年多般「得個傾字」，不過，所謂「沒有期望便沒有失望」，所以結果對投資市場影響亦未必太大。暫繼續以25,500點為首個支持。
反而現階段宜留意美股動向，皆因筆者擔心美股未來一段時間會有較大波動。事實上，左右美股之因素有以下幾方面：其一是美國總統特朗普「通烏門」事件越演越烈，其次是未來一段時間當地經濟數據表現，其三則是企業業績表現。但有一點要留意的是，美股三大指數由52週高位調整約5%至6%，相比之下恆指調整達14%，一旦出現壞消息，調整亦可以相當深。
亦可談談最近兩隻火熱股份海底撈(06862.HK)及美團點評(03690.HK)。兩者皆被稱作內需股，急升原因不外乎是與內地消費概念有關。在此先跟各位分享內地餐飲業最新行情。截至2018年，全國餐廳數目約1,000萬間，根據中國飯店協會早前發布之《2019中國餐飲業年度報告》顯示，2018年內地餐飲收入4.27萬億元人民幣(下同)，同比增長9.5%，當中火鍋市場總收入約8,800億元。以區域劃分，一、二線城市的火鍋市場已進入成熟轉型期，三四線城市則正步入發展期。
由此數據可反映兩個現象：內地餐飲業消費增速高於內地經濟增速，以及火鍋在內地發展依然強勁。這亦或可解釋得到為何海底撈、美團以至頤海(01579.HK)一直備受市場追捧。
再從兩間公司自身發展去作分析，海底撈近年受惠加快於三、四線地區發展，加上品牌效應(取得「消費者滿意單位」及「最受歡迎十佳火鍋店」等榮譽稱號)，令業務維持高速增長；至於美團，相信最大的驚喜在於今年第二季業績業務已能虧轉盈。事實上，經歷了一段「鬥燒錢」的割喉式競爭，內地外賣速送市場現時已剩下美團及餓了麼兩大企業鬥法，但經營狀況持續見改善，而最大優勢應是在於其業務已深入民心，其營運數據亦相當驚人：其首席執行官王興在今年7月29日便發了一條微博宣布，於當日美團外賣單日完成訂單數量突破3,000萬單宗！
雖然兩者各有優勢，不過兩者估值始終不算便宜，所以還是耐心等待調整機會吧！
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