植耀辉: 慎防美股大幅调整 海底捞、美团各有卖点
耀才证券研究部总监植耀辉称，港股现时走势确相当难测，有投资者会认为危中有机，但亦会有人认为还是离场观望会更好，笔者属於後者。可能情况未至太恶劣，但市场气氛要收复亦需一段颇长时间；另外中美贸易新一轮谈判在即，但亦很大机会如过去一年多般「得个倾字」，不过，所谓「没有期望便没有失望」，所以结果对投资市场影响亦未必太大。暂继续以25,500点为首个支持。
反而现阶段宜留意美股动向，皆因笔者担心美股未来一段时间会有较大波动。事实上，左右美股之因素有以下几方面：其一是美国总统特朗普「通乌门」事件越演越烈，其次是未来一段时间当地经济数据表现，其三则是企业业绩表现。但有一点要留意的是，美股三大指数由52周高位调整约5%至6%，相比之下恒指调整达14%，一旦出现坏消息，调整亦可以相当深。
亦可谈谈最近两只火热股份海底捞(06862.HK)及美团点评(03690.HK)。两者皆被称作内需股，急升原因不外乎是与内地消费概念有关。在此先跟各位分享内地餐饮业最新行情。截至2018年，全国餐厅数目约1,000万间，根据中国饭店协会早前发布之《2019中国餐饮业年度报告》显示，2018年内地餐饮收入4.27万亿元人民币(下同)，同比增长9.5%，当中火锅市场总收入约8,800亿元。以区域划分，一、二线城市的火锅市场已进入成熟转型期，三四线城市则正步入发展期。
由此数据可反映两个现象：内地餐饮业消费增速高於内地经济增速，以及火锅在内地发展依然强劲。这亦或可解释得到为何海底捞、美团以至颐海(01579.HK)一直备受市场追捧。
再从两间公司自身发展去作分析，海底捞近年受惠加快於三、四线地区发展，加上品牌效应(取得「消费者满意单位」及「最受欢迎十佳火锅店」等荣誉称号)，令业务维持高速增长；至於美团，相信最大的惊喜在於今年第二季业绩业务已能亏转盈。事实上，经历了一段「斗烧钱」的割喉式竞争，内地外卖速送市场现时已剩下美团及饿了麽两大企业斗法，但经营状况持续见改善，而最大优势应是在於其业务已深入民心，其营运数据亦相当惊人：其首席执行官王兴在今年7月29日便发了一条微博宣布，於当日美团外卖单日完成订单数量突破3,000万单宗！
虽然两者各有优势，不过两者估值始终不算便宜，所以还是耐心等待调整机会吧！
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