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北京首都機場股份(0694.HK):悲觀預期充分釋放,新機場分流不改國門本色
格隆匯 10-09 08:31

機構:東興證券

評級:強烈推薦

公司估值承壓的根本因素在於對新機場持續分流的擔憂。年初發布的轉場方案顯示,未來2年大興機場將對首都機場產生巨大分流,轉場將導致老機場在兩年內損失近三分之一的旅客吞吐量。最為關鍵的是轉場方案中對對於外航是否轉場不做限制,這導致國際航線分流存在較大的不確定性,進而直接影響到對公司未來盈利能力的估計。

我們認為市場對於首都機場預期過於悲觀。我們通過多個維度對首都機場國際航線的前景進行了預判,並對首都機場國際航線結構進行拆解後認為,現有每年約2700萬人次的國際旅客量在轉場完成後能夠保留約2100萬人次,這使得首都機場在未來的兩場競爭中獲得較大先發優勢。東航將京滬線留守首都機場一方面將大量的高淨值旅客留在了首都機場,另一方面也證明了首都機場本身擁有極強的航線競爭力。

新機場分流在挑戰中藴含機遇。以較長的時間維度看,我國的國際樞紐機場從未遭遇產能利用率不足的問題。分流效應是一時的,隨着京津冀地區整體需求的增長,首都機場的吞吐量必然會迎來持續回升。如果能充分利用這一次的轉場的機會,優化航線結構,提升首都機場的國際航線佔比,則會明顯有助於遠期資產收益率的提升。

公司盈利預測及投資評級:我們預計公司2019年-2021年營業收入分別為110.5億元、99.7億元、91.8億元;歸母淨利潤分別為25.5億元、18.2億元和12.2億元;對應PE分別為10.4X、14.5X和21.9X。雖然未來兩年由於新機場分流的因素盈利大幅衰減,但我們認為在2021年分流剛剛完成,公司處於產能利用率低點的情況下,PE估值也僅為22倍左右(行業平均估值水平),這正是公司未來成長性被低估的證明。首次覆蓋,給予“強烈推薦”評級

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