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麥格理:對內銀行業看法趨向中性 行業首選中信銀行(0998.HK)
格隆匯 10-08 16:12
麥格理髮表報告指,有見中國有機會推行寬鬆措施,惟相信內銀並非主要受惠對象,借貸利率及淨利息收益率下降將影響股本回報率,股本回報率將錄得結構性下跌,對國有銀行的影響尤甚。
該行預計,內銀行業之股本回報率今年全年將跌至13.1%,至2021年將進一步跌至11.6%,主要由於淨利息收益率及營運槓桿下降。料內銀淨利息收益率將於今年全年跌至2.08%,至明年跌至1.93%,2021年進一步跌至1.89%,撥備前盈利增速亦將放緩。
該行對內銀行業看法趨向中性,降部分國有銀行評級及目標價。行業首選為中信銀行(0998.HK) ,同時上調民行(1988.HK) 評級至“ 跑贏大市 ”,因其估值較低。降四大行即農行(1288.HK) 、工行(1398.HK) 、建行(0939.HK) 及中行(3988.HK) 評級至“ 中性 ”。
該行對內銀最新評級及目標價見下表:

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