敏實集團(0425.HK)：依託全球化佈局，抵禦風險能力強，目標價32港元，給予“買入”評級
機構：安信國際
評級：買入
目標價：32港元
2018年受中美貿易戰影響，敏實集團業績倒退18%，這是自2011年以來公司首次出現業績倒退。2019年公司通過與主機廠同步開發新品，依靠全球化佈局，頂住壓力，業績將穩定增長。長期看敏實集團1）擁有大量在手訂單，保證收入持續增長。2）開發的新品陸續量產，訂單不斷增多，將成為新的支柱性業務，比如電池盒。3）海外工廠盈利持續改善，開始貢獻利潤。
報告摘要
中美貿易戰對公司影響小。2019上半年公司從中國出口至美國產品佔收入比重7.6%，從墨西哥出口至美國產品佔收入比重2.0%。受貿易戰影響，導致這部分業務利潤率下降，1）公司通過將產品轉移至美國及泰國工廠生產，對產能和產品的優化，降低貿易戰的影響。2019上半年公司收入中北美佔比22.0%，相比較去年同期上升2個百分點。2）提升產品良品率及生產效率。
大力發展電池盒，將成為新的支柱業務。公司一直重視產品研發，要求研發和業務團隊合作，與客户進行技術方案交流，已推出鋁門框、電池盒、自適應巡航系統ACC標牌、主動進氣格柵等新產品。目前電池盒業務發展最為迅猛，單個電池盒價格在2000-5000元不等，遠高於公司的平均單車配套金額388元，未來有望成為新的支柱業務。公司已經獲得了來自雷諾、日產寶馬本田以及福特等11個客户15個車型的訂單，在行業內具有龍頭和先發優勢，公司未來兩年目標實現年20億元的收入規模，長期目標是打造成100億元收入規模的業務。電池盒在國內的鄭州、武漢、瀋陽、安吉、清遠等工廠已經陸續完工，進入量產狀態，在歐洲鋁產品製造基地塞爾維亞開始建設。
中國乘用車行業持續下滑，但敏實的訂單仍持續增長。中國乘用車市場增速不斷下滑，2019前八月乘用車銷量1332萬輛，下降12%。在行業面臨困境時，穩定增長的訂單對零部件製造商至關重要，2019年敏實集團新承接訂單目標為70億，上半年已完成44億。
目標價32港元，買入評級。我們看好敏實集團長遠發展，憑藉其出色管理能力，海外工廠盈利在不斷改善。隨着新產品訂單增多，及陸續量產將成為新的業績增長點。最後我們調整公司目標價至32港元，較現價有25%上漲空間，對應19-21年預測市盈率分別為18.0倍、15.7倍和13.5倍，維持買入評級。
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