卓越教育(3978.HK ) ：最壞情況已過去，預期2H19E強勁復甦，維持“買入”評級
機構：招銀國際
評級：買入
我們預期下半年公司表現會較好，同比收入/經調整後淨利潤將達至24%/117%，主要由於（1）小班輔導的收入增長正在回升，以及（2）公司剝離虧損在線網校業務。
2H19E的招生情況令人滿意。受到政府加強監管K12課後培訓行業的影響，小班輔導的收入同比增長速度從2H18的33%下降至1H19的22%。不過，隨着政策影響減弱，我們預計公司收入同比增速將從1H19的20%回升至2H19E的24%，而2H19E的滿班率將較1H19的62.5%有所提高。
剝離虧損在線網校業務。公司一直投放資源於在線小班輔導的研發及廣告宣傳，1H19的開支達到3,400萬元人民幣，侵蝕經營利潤比率4.0個百分點。該業務依賴大量投資來獲得在線用户流量，短期內為公司的財務帶來壓力。公司在8月引入外部投資，其持股比例由60%降至30%，藉此平衡盈利能力。
我們估計2H19E的整體經營利潤比率將顯著改善。
培訓中心擴展計劃不變。儘管1H19的淨新設培訓中心只有18間（主要在大灣區的主要城市），但管理層仍維持在FY19E增加40-50間培訓中心，以及在2018-2020E合共增加150間中心的目標。根據弗若斯特沙利文（Frost＆Sullivan）的數據，2018年廣東省參加K12課外輔導的學生人數為550萬，僅佔廣東省接受K12常規教育學生人數的28%，普及率低於2017年一線城市的62.9%。我們認為公司仍有很大空間提高市場滲透率。
1H19税後利潤下跌9%。2019年上半年輔導課時及輔導費用分別增長12%和7%，帶動收入增長20%至8.67億元人民幣。擴展興建新培訓中心、裝修及翻修舊中心導致毛利率下降0.9個百分點至41.4%。税後利潤下降9%至7,500萬元人民幣，主要歸因於在線小班輔導帶來2,600萬元的税後損失、投資公允價值收益減少1,000萬元人民幣，以及自採納新訂國際財務報告準則第16號租賃後衍生的800萬元人民幣費用。
維持買入評級，但下調目標價。我們下調FY19/20/21E經調整後淨利潤21%/5%/3%，以反映學生人數減少、新訂國際財務報告準則第16號租賃的影響，以及在線網校業務的虧損。我們將目標價從3.72港元下調至3.41港元，對應FY20E市盈率13.0倍，維持估值於較行業平均值折讓20%。公司估值偏低，截至2019年6月30日的淨現金和投資金額共11.5億元人民幣，相當於其市值74%。
催化劑：（1）招生率好於預期；（2）併購機會。
風險：（1）競爭激烈；（2）教師成本壓力；（3）政府政策
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