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《大行报告》花旗下调本港今年GDP增长预测至0.6% 削明年预测至1.4%
阿思达克 10-03 11:48

花旗发表亚太区经济展望报告,下调对本港今年及明年GDP增长预测,基於看淡今年余下时间的零售行业表现,决定对香港2019年GDP增长预测,由原来1.8%降至0.6%(市场业料升0.3%),同时调低对香港2020年GDP增长预测,由原来2%降至1.4%(市场预测升1.3%)。

该行表示,下调对本港今年及明年GDP增长预测,是反映本港零售旅游行业前景透明度受损,并估计本港今年第三季经济按年增长会「见红」,估计第三季GDP按年增长预测会录负0.3%(按季跌0.6%),并注失业率情况,料零售、餐饮业、旅游、物流及运输业最受影响,相关行业占本港就业人数38%,占名义GDP为31%。

摩通指今年5月至7月经季节性调整的失业率为2.9%,录自2019年首季以来最高水平,估计未来数月情况会持续,料本港至今年年底失业率会升至3.1%,至明年失业率预测进一步升至3.3%。

此外,市场已预期美联储局会於今年余下时间进一步放松政策,但该行估计本港银行将不会追随下调最优惠利率。

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