植耀辉: 港股下行压力大 达芙妮(00210.HK)未宜捞底
耀才植耀辉表示，港股在九月最後一个交易日总算有好表现，并总算能重上26,000点水平。但总结第三季，恒指仍累跌2,450点或8.6%。第四季度亦恐怕难有憧憬，始终中美贸易谈判难以达成共识、联储局息口去向亦充满变数，而本地因素如何演化亦未能预见，加上企业前景难有寄望，所以後市纵有反弹，但幅度亦只会十分有限，下行压力依然较大，暂以25,000点为重要参考支持位。
有趣的是，在成份股中，整个第三季只得三只股份录得升幅，依次分别为舜宇(02382.HK)、石药(01093.HK)及中生制药(01177.HK)，同时升幅亦相当可观，舜宇便升近42.75%！至於表现最差则不感意外，包括太古A(00019.HK)、九仓置业(01997.HK)及新世界(00017.HK)均为本地业务为主，亦反映在本地仍充满阴霾下，第四季恐怕亦难有运行！
市况淡静，但个别股份走势却相当波动，达芙妮(00210.HK)便是其中之一。该股自八月初开始急升，短短两个月一度急升超过2倍，可能是与管理层变动有关；但过去两个交易日却大跌近六成，走势之波动备受关注。
笔者在10多年前曾研究过达芙妮(前称永恩)，主要是当时研究在港上市之台资企业表现。事实上，当年不少台资企业仍处於萌芽阶段，其後数年亦即2008年後受惠内地刺激内需措施，令康师傅(00322.HK)及达芙妮等企业高速增长，风头更是一时无两。在10多年前，达芙妮在内地女装品牌中便占有一个相当重要地位。当时有指中国每5对女装品牌鞋类中，有一对便来自达芙妮！而於2012年度，达芙妮总销售点便多达6,881间！该公司股价在当年便升至11.46元(计及除净因素)历史新高。
然而，该公司最终亦未能摆脱大部分企业发展之宿命。有网上分析便指达芙妮有「三大死因」，包括在一线城市发展近饱和之际不惜牺牲品牌而采取低价促销手段经营、投资电商失利，以及最後亦是笔者认为最致命的影响─品牌老化。事实上，该公司亦非「坐以待毙」，2017年6月便宣布与美国品牌Opening Ceremony合作，可惜该公司知名度不高，结果亦未有带来太大帮助。截至今年上半年，达芙妮实体店只有2,075间，较高峰期减少2/3；而现今股价(0.193元)便较高位回落98%！
当然，现阶段判达芙妮「死刑」言之尚早，强如李宁(02331.HK)当年亦出现阵痛期，不过达芙妮要重新振作恐怕难度将十分之高，加上股价如此疲弱及波动，所以不建议大家「捞底」矣。
笔者并未持有相关股份
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