世茂房地產(00813.HK)：深耕都市圈，銷售投資齊發力，給予“買入”評級，目標價30.50港元
機構：東方證券
評級：買入
目標價：30.50港元
核心觀點
公司股權結構穩定，分紅率高，長期為股東創造價值。公司股權結構清晰穩定，實際控制人為創始人許榮茂先生。2018年派息率為40.7%，回顧歷史三年，公司的派息比例穩定保持在40%左右，股東回報豐厚。
公司專注於房地產開發，過去兩年的高增長為後續業績結算提供保障。2019上半年銷售額1003.4億元，同比增長38.7%，完成全年2100億銷售目標的48%。完成全年計劃是大概率事件。公司在2017~2018年合同銷售額增速分別為48%、75%，高增長為後續業績結算提供保障。
高強度投資，深耕長三角和大灣區都市圈，土儲充沛。遍佈全國的6407萬平方米優質土儲滿足未來5年結算需求，10500億貨值中超過一半位於長三角和大灣區，長三角和大灣區作為全國經濟最發達和最活躍的兩個城市羣，將充分賦能公司銷售端的持續穩定增長。2019年上半年投資強度為78.6%，較2018年提升了31.8個百分點。
盈利能力行業領先，高效的財務管理保障規模、槓桿率、利潤率動態平衡。2019上半年營收565.6億元，同比增長32.9%，股東應占核心利潤為53.1億元，同比增長20.6%。毛利率為30.1%，股東應占核心淨利率為13.7%，盈利能力佳。淨負債率為59.6%，融資成本為5.6%，在民企中較低。回款率為81%，較2018年提升3個百分點。現金短債比為1.6，償債壓力小。
財務預測與投資建議
首次覆蓋給予買入評級，目標價30.50港幣。我們預測公司2019~2021年每股收益分別為3.45/4.34/5.02元。可比公司2019年平均估值為8X，給予公司2019年8X估值，使用0.9043人民幣/港幣匯率（2019年9月26日匯率）計算，首次覆蓋給予公司買入評級，目標價30.50港幣。
風險提示
房地產銷售、結算、回款規模不及預期。佈局城市調控政策力度超預期。拿地不及預期。
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