中國燃氣(00384.HK)：東北城燃銷氣將快速增長，維持“買入”評級，目標價34.73港元
機構：廣發證券
評級：買入
目標價：34.73港元
核心觀點：
氣源改善後東北天然氣市場前景廣闊
近期我們對東北天然氣市場發展情況作了跟蹤。東北天然氣市場前景廣闊，快速發展已是必然趨勢，主要因為：（1）冬季供暖是剛需且需求量大，但此前受制於天然氣供應不足，中俄東線預計今年12月初投產，達產後輸氣能力將達到380億方，遠東線也即將開工；配套的管線建設加快；（2）環保需求驅動，國家大力推動大氣污染防治工作和工業優化升級，東北供熱煤改氣的積極推進將推動天然氣需求大幅增長。2018年東北三省天然氣用氣量為141.56億立方米，保守預計至2025年天然氣銷氣量可達245億立方米。
中國燃氣東北市場佔比首位，銷氣量將加快增長
公司在東北三省先一步搶佔市場機遇，已佈局燃氣管網投資建設項目共計120個，在東北城市燃氣市場的份額佔比超過50%。2018年公司在東北三省銷氣量為20.4億立方米，我們預計到2030年複合增速超過20%，未來公司城鎮燃氣銷氣量增速受益於東北三省天然氣市場擴張將維持快速增長。
盈利預測與投資評級
2019年9月27日，中國燃氣（00384.HK）收盤價為30.10港元，我們預測公司FY2020-2022年收入分別為73,408/89,975/110,114百萬港元，同比增長23.6%/22.6%/22.4%;歸母淨利潤為10,069/12,103/14,504百萬港元，同比增長22.4%/20.2%/19.8%。EPS分別為1.93/2.32/2.78港元，按最新收盤價計算對應市盈率分別為15.6X/13.0X/10.8X，我們基於2019/20財年18倍PE給予公司合理價值為34.73元/股，維持“買入”評級。
風險提示
煤改氣實施不及預期，中俄管道通氣不及預期，上游天然氣價格快速上漲的風險。
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